環保專案成果報告查詢系統

專案計畫編號	EPA-98-FA12-03-A212
經費年度	098
計畫經費	8,800 千元
專案開始日期	2009/10/08
專案結束日期	2010/10/07
專案主持人	陳錦煌
主辦單位	空保處
承辦人	簡大詠
執行單位	景丰科技股份有限公司
專案分類	化學物質管理
中文關鍵字	排放清冊、不確定性及敏感度分析、空氣品質質損
英文關鍵字	Emissions Inventory, Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis,Air Degradation
協同主持人	林清和
共同主持人
計畫聯絡人	蔡志賢
計畫聯絡電話	02-23778011#
計畫聯絡信箱	sean@simenvi.com.tw

中文摘要	為掌握全國排放量趨勢作為管制之參考，對於排放清冊之更新規劃為每三年進行一次，目前最新一版為TEDS 7.0排放量資料庫，以96年為基準年所建置的排放量（98年度完成）。在三年一循環之排放清冊計畫中，本計畫為第二年度計畫，本年度計畫工作成果如下：（一）完成TEDS7.0異常排放量之檢核，並將結果修正為TEDS7.1版之排放量，其污染物排放量較TEDS7.0排放量差異除SOx略為減少外，其餘污染物（TSP、PM10、NOx、THC及NMHC）排放量修正後增加0.04%~5.9%之間，又以TSP修正排放量為最多。（二）資料庫不確定性與敏感度分析結果為:１、點源之SOx與NOx排放量準確度較高，優於TSP與VOCs之推估結果，當中又以逸散性排放不確定性與敏感度最高；2、線源推估受制於模式限制，準確度略低於點源，其中又以車行里程之調查統計值為推估過程中影響排放結果最敏感之因子；3、面源之不確定性源自於係數引用、活動強度統計與分配指標，分析結果為燃燒性面源排放量準確度較高；敏感度分析結果顯示SOx與NOx最敏感源為商船用油燃燒源、TSP為鋪面道路之車行揚塵排放源、THC則是為一般消費用品污染源。（三）以衛星資料方式，調查98年8月之後之全國主要河川地形裸露地，作為下一版本排放量計算時之活動強度估算依據，本計畫以含水裸地之土地型態作為各河川潛在揚塵面積，分析結果濁水溪含水裸地之土地型態佔濁水溪區域達38.6 %，卑南溪更高達51.9 %，尤其以河口地區所佔之區域面積更為廣泛。（四）97年排放量推估結果，TSP總量為522,823公噸/年、SOx總量為129,511公噸/年、NOx總量為448,105公噸/年及NMHC總量為713,440公噸/年。（五）藉由ＡirControlNet空氣污染控制成本系統，應用於本土的前處理程序建立與試算及建議未來推動方向，後續將進行應用於管制策略之研擬工作。（六）全國排放量更新提報制度規劃及自動提報網路系統之建置：針對目前我國排放量管理計畫制度與方法之困難點與TEDS本身存在之問題，藉由縣市相關之提報工作成果，將各項排放減量值回饋於地方，點源提報內容為：1、前20大指定對象排放量確認；2、特定指定對象污染源之排放條件確認；3、自訂對象列管狀態確認。面源提報內容為針對不確定性低落與敏感度高之參數作提報，主要項目為車行揚塵-鋪面道路、露天燃燒、餐飲業、乾洗業、垃圾掩埋、裸露地表、金紙燃燒。（七）其他執行成果包括：綠色國民所得帳空氣品質質損量推估，已提供主計處做為編製年度綠色國民所得帳參考、協助98年度縣市SIP考核空氣品質改善指標相關資料審核與統計分析，作為年度縣市計分參考應用、相關網頁資料更新及技術與行政支援作業等。
中文關鍵字	排放清冊、不確定性及敏感度分析、空氣品質質損

中文摘要

為掌握全國排放量趨勢作為管制之參考，對於排放清冊之更新規劃為每三年進行一次，目前最新一版為TEDS 7.0排放量資料庫，以96年為基準年所建置的排放量（98年度完成）。在三年一循環之排放清冊計畫中，本計畫為第二年度計畫，本年度計畫工作成果如下：（一）完成TEDS7.0異常排放量之檢核，並將結果修正為TEDS7.1版之排放量，其污染物排放量較TEDS7.0排放量差異除SOx略為減少外，其餘污染物（TSP、PM10、NOx、THC及NMHC）排放量修正後增加0.04%~5.9%之間，又以TSP修正排放量為最多。（二）資料庫不確定性與敏感度分析結果為:１、點源之SOx與NOx排放量準確度較高，優於TSP與VOCs之推估結果，當中又以逸散性排放不確定性與敏感度最高；2、線源推估受制於模式限制，準確度略低於點源，其中又以車行里程之調查統計值為推估過程中影響排放結果最敏感之因子；3、面源之不確定性源自於係數引用、活動強度統計與分配指標，分析結果為燃燒性面源排放量準確度較高；敏感度分析結果顯示SOx與NOx最敏感源為商船用油燃燒源、TSP為鋪面道路之車行揚塵排放源、THC則是為一般消費用品污染源。（三）以衛星資料方式，調查98年8月之後之全國主要河川地形裸露地，作為下一版本排放量計算時之活動強度估算依據，本計畫以含水裸地之土地型態作為各河川潛在揚塵面積，分析結果濁水溪含水裸地之土地型態佔濁水溪區域達38.6 %，卑南溪更高達51.9 %，尤其以河口地區所佔之區域面積更為廣泛。（四）97年排放量推估結果，TSP總量為522,823公噸/年、SOx總量為129,511公噸/年、NOx總量為448,105公噸/年及NMHC總量為713,440公噸/年。（五）藉由ＡirControlNet空氣污染控制成本系統，應用於本土的前處理程序建立與試算及建議未來推動方向，後續將進行應用於管制策略之研擬工作。（六）全國排放量更新提報制度規劃及自動提報網路系統之建置：針對目前我國排放量管理計畫制度與方法之困難點與TEDS本身存在之問題，藉由縣市相關之提報工作成果，將各項排放減量值回饋於地方，點源提報內容為：1、前20大指定對象排放量確認；2、特定指定對象污染源之排放條件確認；3、自訂對象列管狀態確認。面源提報內容為針對不確定性低落與敏感度高之參數作提報，主要項目為車行揚塵-鋪面道路、露天燃燒、餐飲業、乾洗業、垃圾掩埋、裸露地表、金紙燃燒。（七）其他執行成果包括：綠色國民所得帳空氣品質質損量推估，已提供主計處做為編製年度綠色國民所得帳參考、協助98年度縣市SIP考核空氣品質改善指標相關資料審核與統計分析，作為年度縣市計分參考應用、相關網頁資料更新及技術與行政支援作業等。

中文關鍵字

排放清冊、不確定性及敏感度分析、空氣品質質損

類型	檔名	檔案大小	說明	最新版公開日期
期末報告	EPA-98-FA12-03-A212.pdf	20MB		2011/3/1 上午 12:00:00

摘要	Emission inventory is very important in developing control strategies for air-quality management. The national emission inventory must be updated every 3 years due to the variation characteristics of emission in time and area. The up-to-date inventory, based on the emission in Year 2007, was first developed in 2009 as TEDS 7.0. It is reviewed by this project. Mistakes and errors are corrected and Version 7.1 of TEDS is then proposed. In addition, TEDS based on the emission in 2010 is prepared as well in this project. This is the first year of this two-year project. Major achievements are as followed. 1. Completion of validating abnormal emissions entries and amended these entries into TEDS 7.1. The resulted pollutant emission difference is 0.04% to 5.9% increased emissions in all pollutants (TSP, PM10, NOx, THC, and NMHC) except slight reduction in SOx emission. TSP has the highest correction among all. 2. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results are the followings. (a) Among point sources, SOx and NOx emission estimates have higher accuracy than TSP and VOCs. Fugitive emissions have the highest uncertainty and sensitivity. (b) Line source estimates are limited by the model applied. These estimate are slightly lower in accuracy than point source estimates. Statistics from vehicle mileage survey is the most sensitive factor to the resulted estimates. (c) uncertainty in area source estimates derived from coefficient parameterization, activity statistics and distribution indexes. Analysis results suggest combustion area source emission estimates are more accurate. Sensitivity analyses indicate SOx and NOx estimates are most sensitive to fuel combustion from commercial vessels. TSP is most sensitive to road dust from paved road and THC is most sensitive to the usage of general consumer products. 3. Investigation of river bank bare ground after August 2009 using satellite data will be the basis of activity estimate for dust emitted from river bank bare ground. This project assumes moist bare ground as potential dust emitting area. The resulted analysis suggests 38.6% of Zhuoshuixi River area is river bank bare ground, up to 51.9% for Pennan River. Estuarine has particularly greater bare ground area than others. 4. Emission estimates for 2008 inventory cycle gives total TSP emission estimate is 522,823 tons/year, total SOx is 129,511 tons/year, total NOx is 448,105 tons/year, total NMHC is 713,440 tons/year. 5. Through the effort in localizing AirControlNet, an air pollution control cost system, using a pre processing program and test run, this project recommends applying the resulted AirControlNet in the formulation of air pollution control strategy and policy. 6. Planning of emission inventory update submission methodology and establishing automatic submission network system will focus on the difficulties in the current national emission control system and methodology and existing faults in TEDS. The suggested system will return emission reduction targets to relevant local agencies based on the emissions submitted. The suggested point source submission includes (a) Confirmation of the designated 20 highest emission sources, (b) Confirmation of the designated pollutant emission condition, and (c) Confirmation of sources flagged as on probation by the submitter. Area source submissions focus on parameters with high uncertainty and sensitivity. These parameters are mostly activities related to road dust on paved road, open burning, restaurants, dry cleaning, landfills, bare ground, and joss paper burning. 7. Other results include estimates for balance of green accounting in air quality gross domestic income(GDI) and assist in 2009 SIP evaluation and statistics analyses for counties and cities(the results will used in yearly performance evaluation, updating relevant web resources, administration support operation and etc. The green accounting results have submitted to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics to take into consideration for the annul green accounting in GDI.
英文關鍵字	Emissions Inventory, Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis,Air Degradation

摘要

Emission inventory is very important in developing control strategies for air-quality management. The national emission inventory must be updated every 3 years due to the variation characteristics of emission in time and area. The up-to-date inventory, based on the emission in Year 2007, was first developed in 2009 as TEDS 7.0. It is reviewed by this project. Mistakes and errors are corrected and Version 7.1 of TEDS is then proposed. In addition, TEDS based on the emission in 2010 is prepared as well in this project. This is the first year of this two-year project. Major achievements are as followed. 1. Completion of validating abnormal emissions entries and amended these entries into TEDS 7.1. The resulted pollutant emission difference is 0.04% to 5.9% increased emissions in all pollutants (TSP, PM10, NOx, THC, and NMHC) except slight reduction in SOx emission. TSP has the highest correction among all. 2. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results are the followings. (a) Among point sources, SOx and NOx emission estimates have higher accuracy than TSP and VOCs. Fugitive emissions have the highest uncertainty and sensitivity. (b) Line source estimates are limited by the model applied. These estimate are slightly lower in accuracy than point source estimates. Statistics from vehicle mileage survey is the most sensitive factor to the resulted estimates. (c) uncertainty in area source estimates derived from coefficient parameterization, activity statistics and distribution indexes. Analysis results suggest combustion area source emission estimates are more accurate. Sensitivity analyses indicate SOx and NOx estimates are most sensitive to fuel combustion from commercial vessels. TSP is most sensitive to road dust from paved road and THC is most sensitive to the usage of general consumer products. 3. Investigation of river bank bare ground after August 2009 using satellite data will be the basis of activity estimate for dust emitted from river bank bare ground. This project assumes moist bare ground as potential dust emitting area. The resulted analysis suggests 38.6% of Zhuoshuixi River area is river bank bare ground, up to 51.9% for Pennan River. Estuarine has particularly greater bare ground area than others. 4. Emission estimates for 2008 inventory cycle gives total TSP emission estimate is 522,823 tons/year, total SOx is 129,511 tons/year, total NOx is 448,105 tons/year, total NMHC is 713,440 tons/year. 5. Through the effort in localizing AirControlNet, an air pollution control cost system, using a pre processing program and test run, this project recommends applying the resulted AirControlNet in the formulation of air pollution control strategy and policy. 6. Planning of emission inventory update submission methodology and establishing automatic submission network system will focus on the difficulties in the current national emission control system and methodology and existing faults in TEDS. The suggested system will return emission reduction targets to relevant local agencies based on the emissions submitted. The suggested point source submission includes (a) Confirmation of the designated 20 highest emission sources, (b) Confirmation of the designated pollutant emission condition, and (c) Confirmation of sources flagged as on probation by the submitter. Area source submissions focus on parameters with high uncertainty and sensitivity. These parameters are mostly activities related to road dust on paved road, open burning, restaurants, dry cleaning, landfills, bare ground, and joss paper burning. 7. Other results include estimates for balance of green accounting in air quality gross domestic income(GDI) and assist in 2009 SIP evaluation and statistics analyses for counties and cities(the results will used in yearly performance evaluation, updating relevant web resources, administration support operation and etc. The green accounting results have submitted to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics to take into consideration for the annul green accounting in GDI.

英文關鍵字

Emissions Inventory, Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis,Air Degradation