EPA-99-FA11-03-A222

099

1,400 千元

2010/12/17

2011/12/31

潘一誠

空保處

郭孟芸

鼎環工程顧問有限公司

大氣空氣

細懸浮微粒、健康效益、貨幣化

Particulate Matters、Health benefit、Monetary

陳則儒

02-66173021#204

leo02021228@evec.com.tw

(一)完成美國環保署空氣品質標準法規影響評估(Regulatory Impact analysis, RIA)研析 1.針對美國2006年PM2.5和2010年O3空氣品質加嚴標準，應用美國環保署發展之空氣品質擴散模式(Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model, CMAQ)，分析管制策略實施後目標年符合PM2.5和O3加嚴標準所產生之健康效益與所需成本，並探討效益評估之不確定性與限制因素。 2.美國環保署使用效益圖像分析系統(Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, BenMAP)，進行PM2.5和O3加嚴標準健康效益評估。透過流行病學研究使用適合的健康衝擊函數，並透過經濟學者研究使用符合當地特性之統計生命價值(Value of a Statistical Life, VSL)，進而將空氣品質改善所產生的健康效益加以貨幣化。美國健康效益評估範疇，包括全死因、慢性支氣管炎、呼吸道及心血管疾病門診住院、限制工作日數等。 3.美國環保署引用空氣污染源控制系統(Air Control Net)，架構管制措施成本資料庫，藉由不同管制措施之組合，估算達成空氣品質加嚴標準所需之成本。其成本使用資料包括：(1)估計控制設備設置與操作維護成本；(2)彙整各類污染源之單位減量成本；(3)透過目標年各類污染源之減量需求，估算各項管制措施之總成本；(4)進行不同管制措施成本組合。 (二)完成歐盟環境行動計畫(Environmental Action Programme, EAP)效益評估做法之研析 歐盟環境行動計畫(EAP)透過設定各會員國污染物排放量上限， 達到未來年空氣品質標準目標，歐盟在空氣清淨計畫下，運用(Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation, RAINS)模式進行空氣品質資料處理及健康範疇設定，並藉由成本效益分析(Cost-Benefit Analysis, CBA)模式，進行貨幣化效益評估。其預估未來年空氣品質改善目標之作法，與美國達成目標年空氣品質之原則大致相同。 (三)評估生命品質指標(Life Quality LQI)效益指標 加拿大學者透過國民生產毛額及平均壽命，結合消費彈性指數及社會願付金額(Social Willingness to Pay, SWTP)，估算避免過早死亡之效益，並且利用該指標將健康效益貨幣化，使用此方法影響較大的變數為折現率之選用，選用不同折現率進行效益貨幣量化時，會造成效益現值的差異，因此，應審慎評估不同折現率之使用。本計畫並列表比較LQI與傳統效益評估方法之異同。 (四)建立篩選效益評估工具原則及我國空品效益評估流程。 1.參考前述歐美效益評估方法，擬訂我國效益評估工具之篩選原則包括：(1)簡便之操作介面；(2)廣泛被使用且持續更新之軟體；(3)可擴充專家學者最新健康風險研究成果；(4)可量化不同空氣污染物影響之成本效益。本計畫依上述原則選取美國BenMAP作為我國效益評估採用之工具。 2.建議我國空氣品質標準效益評估流程如下：(1)蒐集本土化之空氣污染物排放量資料。(2)以空氣品質擴散模式進行基準年及目標年排放量及管制策略情境分析。(3)整合空氣品質監測站數據並發展標準採樣方法。(4)引用美國BenMAP工具進行健康效益評估，結合國內流行病學者健康衝擊函數之研究成果及經濟學者對VSL之研究成果。 (五)探討我國空氣污染防制策略之效益 1.本計畫應用迴歸及相關性分析，探討歷年大台北地區移動源空污費徵收與空品改善兩者間之關係，結果呈現顯著正相關，即空污費徵收有助於空氣品質改善效益之增加。本團隊並利用BenMAP進行大台北地區鄉鎮與行政層級的健康衝擊與效益評估，透過評估民國86~99年該地區各測站臭氧空氣品質濃度改善，發現新北市可減少的過早死亡人數約352人，伴隨的健康效益約為64億元，台北市可減少的過早死亡人數約188人，伴隨的健康效益約為34億元。 2.另以中部、雲嘉南空品區進行目標年(民國105年)管制策略情境方案空氣品質改善預測，結果顯示該地區採用最嚴情境方案三後，因臭氧空氣品質改善所獲得之健康效益，可減少該地區過早死亡人數約254人，伴隨的健康效益約為46億元。

細懸浮微粒、健康效益、貨幣化

EPA99FA1103A222.pdf

23MB

2012/5/1 上午 12:00:00

1.Completed the review and analysis of the US EPA’s Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) documents. (1)Researched the outcome of the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling for the US EPA’s 2006 PM2.5 and 2010 ozone standards. After reaching the attainment goals with the implemented control strategies, the cost for the health benefits in the RIAs were reviewed and evaluated. The uncertainties and restrains in the cost-benefit methods were also commented. (2)Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) was used in US EPA’s PM2.5 and O3 RIAs. These analyses combined the health impact functions in epidemiological studies, and the value of a statistical life (VSL) in typical economic conditions to estimate the health benefit in dollars based on the improved air quality. The US EPA’s health benefit evaluation categories including mortality-all cause, chronic lung disease, all respiratory, mortality cardiopulmonary, worker productivity, etc. (3)The Air Control Net is a database for estimating and comparing the cost of control measures. Through different combinations of the control strategies, the cost of stricter air quality standards can be estimated. The cost information in Air Control Net includes: (1) control equipment and maintenance cost, (2) unit cost of the emissions reduction in various air pollution sources, (3) calculations of the total cost from the reduction goals of various pollution sources, (4) cost comparisons of different control strategies. 2.Completed the review and analysis of the Environmental Action Programme’s (EAP) cost-benefit method. The EAP is a program for setting the emissions limits for the European countries to achieve the goals for the future air quality standards. Under the Clean Air for Europe Programme (CAFE), the EU applies the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model for data management and content assessment together with the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) for quantitative benefit estimation. The process of predicting the future year in the air quality improvement we found, is similar to the process of the US EPA. 3.Completed the review and analysis of the Life Quality Index (LQI) cost-benefit method. The Canadian Life Quality Index (LQI) is composed of the Gross Domestic Product per person (G), life expectancy at birth in good health (E), elasticity of consumption (q) and Social Willingness to Pay (SWTP) for calculating the benefit in reducing premature mortality. In addition, since the magnitude of the discount rates will greatly affects the LQI, therefore, we recommend to carefully evaluating the application criteria of the discount rates before used in the LQI estimations. This project also provides a table for comparison between LQI and traditional cost-benefit methods. 4.Established the screening principles and evaluation process for Taiwan’s air quality cost-benefit analysis. (1)Referenced the cost-benefit methods above, the screening principles are recommended: a) simplicity in operating interface, b) widely used and frequently updated software, c) expandability to include the most current health risk studies by professional and scholars, d) flexible to estimate the cost-benefit data for different air pollutants. We recommend BenMAP for Taiwan’s air quality cost-benefit analysis. (2)We also recommended the process for cost-benefit evaluations includes: a) establish local air emissions inventory, b) use air quality modeling for the base year and future attainment year with control strategies scenarios, c) organize the air monitoring data and develop standard sampling procedures, d) use the BenMAP to do cost-benefit analysis and utilize the Taiwan’s epidemiological scholars and economists suggested values for the health impaction functions and VSL values. 5.Estimated the cost-benefit for air quality control strategies in Taiwan. (1)This project applied regression analysis and found a positive correlation between Taipei area’s air quality and taxing mobile source fee. Therefore, the collection of mobile source fee will help improving the air quality in Taipei. This project used BenMAP to model the health benefit in Taipei metropolitan area from 1997 to 2010. With improved ozone air quality, the results showed that the premature mortality can be reduced to 352 persons with health benefit of NTD 640 million in New Taipei City, and the premature mortality can be reduced to 188 persons in Taipei City with health benefit of NTD 340 million. (2)Additionally, the central and Yun-Ya-Nan air zones showed a premature mortality reduction of 254 persons and a health benefit of NTD 460 million from the proposed control strategy III modeling to the achieved ozone level in the target year (2016).

Particulate Matters、Health benefit、Monetary