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專案計畫編號	EPA-100-FA11-03-D153
經費年度	100
計畫經費	3,500 千元
專案開始日期	2011/08/29
專案結束日期	2012/03/31
專案主持人	徐世勳
主辦單位	溫減管理室(停用)
承辦人	羅博銘
執行單位	國立台灣大學
專案分類	大氣空氣
中文關鍵字	農業部門模型;國家通訊
英文關鍵字	Agricultural Sector Model;National Communication
協同主持人
共同主持人
計畫聯絡人	許聖民
計畫聯絡電話	02-33662667#
計畫聯絡信箱	donnyhus1978@gmail.com

中文摘要	本計畫蒐集研析目前國家主要國家(包含美國、加拿大、歐盟、澳洲、紐西蘭、日本、韓國及中國)與國內溫室氣體排放管理策略現況、趨勢及相關研究，並分析討論目前我國農林部門溫室氣體排放管理策略之可行性評估。雖然我國並非UNFCCC之簽署國，而未被京都議定書規範，但依據過去參予國際環保公約之經驗，我國仍會主動積極參予。而目前所有公約締約國須提交「國家通訊(National Communication)」，以進行資訊之交流，作為因應氣候變遷整體政策檢討分析工具。故本研究首先要進行我國農林部門溫室氣體排放統計及不同排放情境推估下，建構一套以農業部門模型(Agricultural Sector Model，以下簡稱ASM)為理論基礎之模型，其範圍包含所有之農林漁畜產業之橫斷面資料。在根據MESSAGE模型在IPCC之排放量情境特別報告(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES)所使用之情境設定，進行降尺度至亞洲地區之A2情境與B2情境進行我國農林部門溫室氣體排放統計推估。模擬結果顯示在長期下，強調經濟與環境永續發展之B2情境溫室氣體排放量將低於人口快速成長，經濟與技術成長緩慢之A2情境。面對全球暖化引起的氣候變遷，對於農業生產和生態的衝擊越來越明顯，而農委會也提出相關溫室氣體適當減緩行動(NAMAs)，故本計畫運用農業部門模型分析探討我國農林部門溫室氣體減量策略對我國之衝擊影響。在農業部分，研析政府補貼農民種植甘藷與甘蔗作物、兩種不同碳價及三種不同的酒精價格作組合，進行模擬種植生質能源作物結果；另外，亦進行合理化施肥之研究，分析政府取消85%肥料補助效果。林業部門，從我國土地、管理與技術三方面進行綠色造林之執行問題評析，評估綠色造林計畫實施上對我國農林業部門之衝擊。在漁業部份，根據NAMAs減船與休漁政策進行漁業部門溫室氣體排放估計與評估。而上述情境模擬結果顯示，我國目前農林部門之溫室氣體減量策略，均能有效控制與減緩溫室氣體排放。由於農林部門溫室氣體減量具有相當大的潛在空間，需結合氣候變遷、環境改善、和永續發展等多方面之施政方向，更有助於未來我國在農林部門溫室氣體減量措施推動與實施。
中文關鍵字	農業部門模型;國家通訊

中文摘要

本計畫蒐集研析目前國家主要國家(包含美國、加拿大、歐盟、澳洲、紐西蘭、日本、韓國及中國)與國內溫室氣體排放管理策略現況、趨勢及相關研究，並分析討論目前我國農林部門溫室氣體排放管理策略之可行性評估。雖然我國並非UNFCCC之簽署國，而未被京都議定書規範，但依據過去參予國際環保公約之經驗，我國仍會主動積極參予。而目前所有公約締約國須提交「國家通訊(National Communication)」，以進行資訊之交流，作為因應氣候變遷整體政策檢討分析工具。故本研究首先要進行我國農林部門溫室氣體排放統計及不同排放情境推估下，建構一套以農業部門模型(Agricultural Sector Model，以下簡稱ASM)為理論基礎之模型，其範圍包含所有之農林漁畜產業之橫斷面資料。在根據MESSAGE模型在IPCC之排放量情境特別報告(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES)所使用之情境設定，進行降尺度至亞洲地區之A2情境與B2情境進行我國農林部門溫室氣體排放統計推估。模擬結果顯示在長期下，強調經濟與環境永續發展之B2情境溫室氣體排放量將低於人口快速成長，經濟與技術成長緩慢之A2情境。面對全球暖化引起的氣候變遷，對於農業生產和生態的衝擊越來越明顯，而農委會也提出相關溫室氣體適當減緩行動(NAMAs)，故本計畫運用農業部門模型分析探討我國農林部門溫室氣體減量策略對我國之衝擊影響。在農業部分，研析政府補貼農民種植甘藷與甘蔗作物、兩種不同碳價及三種不同的酒精價格作組合，進行模擬種植生質能源作物結果；另外，亦進行合理化施肥之研究，分析政府取消85%肥料補助效果。林業部門，從我國土地、管理與技術三方面進行綠色造林之執行問題評析，評估綠色造林計畫實施上對我國農林業部門之衝擊。在漁業部份，根據NAMAs減船與休漁政策進行漁業部門溫室氣體排放估計與評估。而上述情境模擬結果顯示，我國目前農林部門之溫室氣體減量策略，均能有效控制與減緩溫室氣體排放。由於農林部門溫室氣體減量具有相當大的潛在空間，需結合氣候變遷、環境改善、和永續發展等多方面之施政方向，更有助於未來我國在農林部門溫室氣體減量措施推動與實施。

中文關鍵字

農業部門模型;國家通訊

類型	檔名	檔案大小	說明	最新版公開日期
期末報告	EPA100FA1103D153.pdf	10MB		2012/7/1 上午 12:00:00

摘要	The project collected and analyzed the researches on the issues of greenhouse gas emission managements and strategies in major countries including America, Canada, EU, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Korea and China as well as in Taiwan. In addition, the feasibility of current greenhouse gas emission management strategies on agricultural and forestry sectors in Taiwan was evaluated. Taiwan did not join the international treaty- the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and is not regulated by the Kyoto Protocol. Nevertheless, Taiwanese government is actively involved in related activities according to previous experiences on participating in global environmental conventions. In present, all parties have to submit National Communication and exchange information between countries in order to Provide useful information for the possible adaptation strategies with respect to climate change. Therefore, the research firstly estimated the amount of greenhouse gas emission on agricultural and forestry sectors in Taiwan, and then built the model which covers all data on agricultural, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry sectors based on Agricultural Sector Model, ASM. Scenario settings from MESSAGE model on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, were used to be specific to A2 and B2 scenarios in Asian region for greenhouse gas emission prediction on agricultural and forestry sectors. The simulation results show that greenhouse gas emission in B2 scenario where represents a moderate population growth with sustainable development of economic and the environment will be lower than emission in A2 scenario where represents a high population growth with low economic and technical growth. In response to dominant impacts of climate change which caused by global warming on agriculture production and ecology, Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan has suggested actions on Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Measures, NAMAs. Therefore, the project discussed the impact of domestic greenhouse gas emission management strategies on agricultural and forestry sectors by model analysis. In agricultural sector, the simulations of planting bioenergy crops given the subsidy on yams and sugar canes and alternative carbon prices and alcohol prices were analyzed. In addition, the research on management of fertilizer usage was conducted when the current fertilizer subsidies by the government was eliminated. On forestry sector, the problems implementing afforestation activities were assessed from three perspectives: land, management and technology, and the impacts of implementing afforestation activities on agricultural and forestry sectors. On fishery sector, greenhouse gas emission estimation and assessment were discussed according to NAMAs reduces the ship and stops catching fish’s policies. The simulation results show that present greenhouse gas emission management strategies on agricultural and forestry sectors all contribute efficient control and reduction in greenhouse gas emission. Agricultural and forestry sectors have great potential for greenhouse gas reduction. In combination with policies on climate change, environment improvement and sustainable development, impetus and implementation of national greenhouse gas reduction activities on agricultural and forestry sectors could be achieved in future.
英文關鍵字	Agricultural Sector Model;National Communication

摘要

The project collected and analyzed the researches on the issues of greenhouse gas emission managements and strategies in major countries including America, Canada, EU, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Korea and China as well as in Taiwan. In addition, the feasibility of current greenhouse gas emission management strategies on agricultural and forestry sectors in Taiwan was evaluated. Taiwan did not join the international treaty- the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and is not regulated by the Kyoto Protocol. Nevertheless, Taiwanese government is actively involved in related activities according to previous experiences on participating in global environmental conventions. In present, all parties have to submit National Communication and exchange information between countries in order to Provide useful information for the possible adaptation strategies with respect to climate change. Therefore, the research firstly estimated the amount of greenhouse gas emission on agricultural and forestry sectors in Taiwan, and then built the model which covers all data on agricultural, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry sectors based on Agricultural Sector Model, ASM. Scenario settings from MESSAGE model on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, were used to be specific to A2 and B2 scenarios in Asian region for greenhouse gas emission prediction on agricultural and forestry sectors. The simulation results show that greenhouse gas emission in B2 scenario where represents a moderate population growth with sustainable development of economic and the environment will be lower than emission in A2 scenario where represents a high population growth with low economic and technical growth. In response to dominant impacts of climate change which caused by global warming on agriculture production and ecology, Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan has suggested actions on Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Measures, NAMAs. Therefore, the project discussed the impact of domestic greenhouse gas emission management strategies on agricultural and forestry sectors by model analysis. In agricultural sector, the simulations of planting bioenergy crops given the subsidy on yams and sugar canes and alternative carbon prices and alcohol prices were analyzed. In addition, the research on management of fertilizer usage was conducted when the current fertilizer subsidies by the government was eliminated. On forestry sector, the problems implementing afforestation activities were assessed from three perspectives: land, management and technology, and the impacts of implementing afforestation activities on agricultural and forestry sectors. On fishery sector, greenhouse gas emission estimation and assessment were discussed according to NAMAs reduces the ship and stops catching fish’s policies. The simulation results show that present greenhouse gas emission management strategies on agricultural and forestry sectors all contribute efficient control and reduction in greenhouse gas emission. Agricultural and forestry sectors have great potential for greenhouse gas reduction. In combination with policies on climate change, environment improvement and sustainable development, impetus and implementation of national greenhouse gas reduction activities on agricultural and forestry sectors could be achieved in future.

英文關鍵字

Agricultural Sector Model;National Communication