EPA-104-L102-02-101

104

330 千元

2015/01/23

2015/12/31

陳正平

監資處

林雍嵐

國立臺灣大學

大氣空氣

空氣品質預報、動力模式、東亞大氣沙塵與本土河川沙塵

air-quality forecast, dynamic numerical model, East Asia atmospheric and local riverside mineral dust

蔡宜君；朱定中

黃鏡芸

02-33663942#

jingyun@aerosol.as.ntu.edu.tw

本計畫針對臺灣地區的空氣品質預報作業進行系統之研發與維護，並提供作業上必要的協助。主要工作內容包括中尺度氣象動力模式、東亞大氣沙塵動力模式(TAQM/KOSA;WRFDUST)、本土沙塵動力模式(TAQM/TWKOSA)、臺灣空氣品質模式(TAQM)以及第三代空氣品質動力化學模式(CMAQ)的維運。資料分析的部分完成動力模式的預報輸出結果與監測站的監測資料，包括WRF氣象模式的氣象變數輸出、空氣品質模式的臭氧與細懸浮微粒濃度進行分析，衛星資料反演的細懸浮微粒濃度結果與監測站監測資料進行比較分析。為提高空氣品質預報的能力，也進行空氣品質模式預報觀測校驗工作，找到動力模式可改進的部分，未來可回饋於修改模式的參考依據。現行模式敏感因子分析，以環保署15各測站進行臭氧與細懸浮微粒濃度分析。針對一般污染分析完成環保署各測站及七大空品區模式模擬與觀測污染物濃度日變化序列校驗，並分析彙整近3年空氣品質不良案例；高污染個案分析完成兩起中國大陸霾害影響臺灣空氣品質事件之個案。在協助環保署進行預報的部分，包括派有計畫駐署人員協助整理氣象局供應之資料，整合分析沙塵及空氣品質預報資訊，提供各種預報決策參考所需的資料。本計畫也支援提供環境保護署的組織學習教育訓練，以及計畫主持人於東亞沙塵事件日提供專家諮詢意見並且參加檢討會議。 本年度模式運作的變更主要為提升空氣品質模式在臭氧、懸浮微粒及細懸浮微粒預報能力，對空氣品質模擬失準之因素進行初步分析，年底預估在目前調整測試完竣後，CMAQ V4.7 版調整新版排放將於2016年1月起上線作業，提供給預報人員參考評估。

空氣品質預報、動力模式、東亞大氣沙塵與本土河川沙塵

EPA104L10202101.pdf

27MB

2016/7/1 上午 12:00:00

The purpose of this project is to maintain the forecasting systems to facilitate daily forecast of air quality over the Taiwan area. The main tasks of this project are (1) to maintain and operate the numerical forecasting model, including the East Asia atmospheric dust dynamic numerical model, local dust dynamic model, Taiwan Air Quality Model, Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model and mesoscale numerical weather modeling system; (2) analyze the characteristic of atmospheric factors, ozone and PM2.5 between the simulation results, site monitoring data and MODIS satellite retrieval data. The comparison results will be used as basis for improving the dynamic numerical model in the future. Such sensitive factors analysis is performed on data from 15 monitoring stations to aide the forecast of O3 and PM2.5 concentration. Analysis was also performed on the time correlation of forecasted and observed pollutant concentrations over EPA’s monitoring stations and seven air quality districts. The tasks also include analysis of air pollution episodes over the past three years were conducted with focus on the meteorological conditions and comparison of air pollution model results. This year we focus on two highly polluted events. This project also provided special-duty manpower for EPA to integrate all relevant information and offer referral for the pre-warning decision, as well as to provide organizational training. Project director is required to join the forecasting meeting on East Asia dust events and provide expert opinion to EPA. Adjustments in operation procedures were done to improve the air quality forecast capabilities of ozone, PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations. After the preliminary analysis for bias adjustment of air quality model results as well as emission inventory adjustments, the modified CMAQ V4.7 version will be brought on-line starting January 2016.

air-quality forecast, dynamic numerical model, East Asia atmospheric and local riverside mineral dust