The purpose of this project is to maintain the forecasting systems to facilitate daily forecast of air quality over the Taiwan area. The main tasks of this project are (1) to maintain and operate the numerical forecasting model, including the East Asia atmospheric dust dynamic numerical model, local dust dynamic model, Taiwan Air Quality Model, Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model and mesoscale numerical weather modeling system; (2) analyze the characteristic of atmospheric factors, ozone and PM2.5 between the simulation results, site monitoring data and MODIS satellite retrieval data. The comparison results will be used as basis for improving the dynamic numerical model in the future. Such sensitive factors analysis is performed on data from 15 monitoring stations to aide the forecast of O3 and PM2.5 concentration. Analysis was also performed on the time correlation of forecasted and observed pollutant concentrations over EPA’s monitoring stations and seven air quality districts. The tasks also include analysis of air pollution episodes over the past three years were conducted with focus on the meteorological conditions and comparison of air pollution model results. This year we focus on two highly polluted events. This project also provided special-duty manpower for EPA to integrate all relevant information and offer referral for the pre-warning decision, as well as to provide organizational training. Project director is required to join the forecasting meeting on East Asia dust events and provide expert opinion to EPA. Adjustments in operation procedures were done to improve the air quality forecast capabilities of ozone, PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations. After the preliminary analysis for bias adjustment of air quality model results as well as emission inventory adjustments, the modified CMAQ V4.7 version will be brought on-line starting January 2016.

air-quality forecast, dynamic numerical model, East Asia atmospheric and local riverside mineral dust