EPA-105-FB12-03-A189

105

8,450 千元

溫室氣體盤查交易管理

2016/05/31

2017/05/30

劉哲良

環管處

劉卉庭

財團法人中華經濟研究院

大氣空氣、國際性議題

先期暨抵換專案、碳定價、碳洩漏、投資外加性、溫室氣體減量成本、經濟衝擊影響評估、環境影響評估

Early Action Project and Offset Project, Carbon Pricing, Carbon Leakage, Additionality of investment, Reduction costs for GHGs, Economic Impact Analysis, Environmental impact assessment

林俊旭；羅時芳

林宗昱

02-27356006#516

tsungyu@cier.edu.tw

本計畫包含四大工作項。在第一工作項目中，本年度包含三個工作重點。首先是更新減量實證數據，配合經濟市場供需理論架構，分析我國減量額度供需及潛在市場價格，其次，配合國內實證數據，進行政策績效環境效益面向與經濟帶動效果面向評估，最後，研究團隊彙整國際溫室氣體排放市場發展現況及分析發展趨勢。碳洩漏發生的定義為投資或生產決策的改變是因不同的碳價所造成的影響，導致產品在其他地區生產排碳量較原有生產增加。碳洩漏發生的可能因素包括(1)不對稱的氣候政策、(2)氣候政策對貿易有實質影響，以及(3)因產品外移至技術較差的國家而導致生產過程所造成的溫室氣體排放變高的位移效果等。國際上已有歐盟、美國加州、南韓等國家地區研擬碳洩漏評估風險方式，透過碳排放強度、貿易強度等指標，以矩陣方式評估其影響程度。本研究應用國內政府單位統計資料，配合美國加州評估所採用的方法論架構與指標來進行我國產業層級碳洩漏風險之模擬評估。 在第二部分的工作項目中，本計畫研析微規模專案之投資分析，以國際CDM制度為主軸，日本J-Credit機制為輔，補強我國微規模專案之投資分析評估原則，並更新國內上市公司產業基準值，共計18個產業，以提供主管機關做為未來審查抵換專案投資外加性之參考。此外，研究團隊共協助14件次抵換專案之投資外加性分析（初審9案、複審5案）。 在第三部分的工作項目中，本年度的評估重點在聚焦於探討商業部門（主要為服務業）實施排放管制時所可能面對的衝擊影響。研究團隊採用得以刻畫整體經濟互動關聯性的經濟模型，並配合最新的實證資料與各項情境設定，來模擬此一管制策略對於服務業部門及我國經濟之潛在衝擊，以期能夠做為主管機關做為未來決策之參考基礎。 第四個工作項目，本計畫共協助53件環評開發行為之個案審查及分析，內容包含個案背景分析及案件之審查意見，確認資料完整性與正確性。此外，亦協助完成3件環評溫室氣體減量及抵換個案追蹤作業，並研提各案件之查核報告書。最後，針對與本計畫相關之溫室氣體管理議題，共舉辦10小時教育訓練課程，及辦理6場次專家諮詢會議。

先期暨抵換專案、碳定價、碳洩漏、投資外加性、溫室氣體減量成本、經濟衝擊影響評估、環境影響評估

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2017/9/1 上午 12:00:00

The content of this project includes four parts. There are three issues in the first part. First, we reviewed the current status of international carbon markets and found out the possible policy insights from these review. Second, how to evaluate the GHGs reduction was investigated. The evaluation methodology was then constructed based on the index of Social Cost of Carbon to help completing policy assessment in Taiwan. Finally, since the price signals are crucial for policy making, we estimate the possible carbon price of Taiwan off-set crediting market on the basis of demand and supply data. Carbon leakage occurs when direct and indirect costs deriving from an asymmetrical climate policy have a substantial impact on competitiveness, leading to industrial production and new investments moving outside a regulated region together with the associated greenhouse gas emissions. This working definition of carbon leakage is based on three core concepts: (1) Asymmetrical climate policy, (2) Substantial impact on competitiveness, (3) Relocation of greenhouse gas emissions: the phenomenon of companies moving their production and/or redirecting their investments to other jurisdictions where emissions costs are lower, thereby increasing emissions. A number of other jurisdictions such as EU, South Korea, and US- State of California are adopting measures to define the level of carbon leakage. Most of the jurisdictions currently uses carbon cost (emissions intensity or carbon intensity) and trade intensity to determine the degree which a sector is energy-intensive and trade-exposed. This project refer to California methodology to define the level of carbon leakage risk of Taiwan sectors. In the second part, we investigated the investment analysis of micro-scale project taking into the procedure of the international Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) system and the Japan J-Credit mechanism together in order to increase the robustness of domestic investment analysis evaluation principles. We also updated the domestic industry benchmark value from the data of listed companies with a total of 18 industries as the reference for the review of carbon offset additionality. In addition, the research team assisted a total of 14 cases by reviewing the investment additionality analysis (9 cases for the first round review, 5 cases for the second round review) In the third part, assessing the possible economic impacts of adoption of available emission standard for commercial sector, especially for service industry is the major task in the third part. An assessment process could capture the interaction between commercial sector and the rest of the economy was adopted to assess the impact of implement of carbon emission standard. The several of simulations on the basis of different scenarios are provided as outcomes and the policy applications are suggested based on the assessment results. The fourth part, to assist with analysis and review the individual case of GHGs emissions evaluation and case tracking, this project has examined 53 cases of environmental development activities and 3 tracking cases have been checked with report for each individual case. At the end, we will hold 10 hours training programs and 6 professional seminars to focus on GHGs management issues related to our project.

Early Action Project and Offset Project, Carbon Pricing, Carbon Leakage, Additionality of investment, Reduction costs for GHGs, Economic Impact Analysis, Environmental impact assessment