EPA-105-FB11-03-A205

105

4,320 千元

2016/04/28

2016/12/31

蘇富榮

環管處

張文菖

環興科技股份有限公司

國際性議題

溫室氣體、廢棄物部門、國家清冊報告、不確定性、蒙地卡羅法

Greenhouse gas, waste sector, national inventory report (NIR), uncertainty, Monte Carlo method

簡誌良

02-27691366#20966

clchien@mail.sinotech-eng.com

本計畫依據IPCC 2006年版國家溫室氣體清冊指南，精進統計我國廢棄物部門(Waste Sector)溫室氣體排放清冊，並比較分析國際間於2015~2016年兩次提交IPCC 2006年版國家清冊報告(National Inventory Report, NIR)，比較廢棄物部門溫室氣體排放統計方法與差異，掌握國際最新趨勢。 為精進清冊統計品質，訪查3處掩埋場了解沼氣收集處理設施設置操作歷程，確認排放參數合理性；實地量測3類事業廢水處理廠溫室氣體排放量，比較本土排放係數與IPCC清冊指南預設係數之差異；檢討部門統計範疇與參數，評估增加生活污水處理廠甲烷排放、事業廢水處理氧化亞氮排放、確認掩埋場歷年沼氣中甲烷比例變動趨勢、調整廢棄物焚化量來源；對於排放量不確定性(Uncertainty)分析，除採誤差傳播法(Propagation of error)外，並進一步以蒙地卡羅法(Monte Carlo method)模擬分析，比較兩者差異。辦理3場次專家會議，確認前述調查、範疇檢討結果，並依循國家清冊審議機制，提報清冊資料，完成廢棄物部門年度排放清冊報告（1990至2014年）。 本計畫參照京都議定書國家溫室氣體排放清冊報告格式，以及國家溫室氣體排放清冊統計格式架構報表，依IPCC 2006版排放清冊指南規範，完成2016年版廢棄物部門溫室氣體排放清冊精進統計結果。 依2006 IPCC指南統計排放結果：歷年排放量以1996年最大，2000年後遞減。2009年前以掩埋排放為主，之後漸轉為以污廢水排放為主。近10年，掩埋排放持續減量，生活污水排放漸減，事業廢水排放漸增。2014年廢棄物部門排放量為4,264.3千公噸二氧化碳當量；掩埋排放佔整體部門33.5%，生活污水佔38.1%，事業廢水佔25.2%，焚化佔2.3%，堆肥佔0.9%；排放氣體種類，甲烷約佔89.9%，氧化亞氮約7.9%，二氧化碳約2.1%；排放量相較於1990年減少53%，較2013年減少5%。

溫室氣體、廢棄物部門、國家清冊報告、不確定性、蒙地卡羅法

國家環境相關溫室氣體清冊統計與精進管理專案工作計畫-正式報告.pdf

29MB

2017/3/1 上午 12:00:00

This project has compiled and improved the Taiwan National Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Waste Sector from 1990 to 2014 using methodologies consistent with those recommended in the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006 Guidelines). The methodologies for estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Waste Sector described in the National Inventory Report submitted by the Annex I parties in 2015 and 2016 have been reviewed and analyzed to understand and identify the latest international trends. The following efforts were made to accurately estimate GHG emissions and improve the inventory quality for future potential GHG inventory revisions. For a reasonable choice of emission parameters, 3 solid waste disposal sites were visited to understand the history of landfill gas collection and utilization. On-site GHG emissions from 3 categories of industrial wastewater treatment plants were also measured to compare the differences between the local emission factor and default value given in the IPCC 2006 Guidelines. To evaluate for incorporating excluded emission sources and improve the accuracy of emission factors, several tasks were implemented, including the evaluation of CH4 emissions from domestic wastewater treatment plants, evaluation of N2O emissions from industrial wastewater treatment plants, determination of the fraction of methane in generated landfill gas based on the reporting data, and adjustment of the source of activity data for waste incineration. In addition, both Approach 1 (propagation of error) and Approach 2 (Monte Carlo method) were used for the uncertainty analysis of emission estimates. Detailed results of both approaches are presented and compared. Concrete conclusion and suggestion with respect to the above survey results and evaluation for incorporating excluded emission sources have been made after 3 review meetings with the experts. With reference to the reporting guidelines on annual greenhouse gas inventory under the Kyoto Protocol and National Greenhouse Gas Inventory tables, the Taiwan National Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Waste Sector from 1990 to 2014 consistent with the IPCC 2006 Guidelines has been compiled and submitted by the inventory review process. The changes in greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector show that emissions were the highest in 1996 and there was a general downward trend since 2000. The largest contributor to the emissions by category was changed from solid waste disposal to wastewater treatment since 2009. Over the past 10 years, emissions from solid waste disposal and domestic wastewater treatment have decreased substantially, while emissions from industrial wastewater treatment have increased. In 2014, emissions from the waste sector resulted in 4,264.3 kt-CO2 eq. Among the waste sector emissions in 2014, the largest contributor was domestic wastewater treatment accounting for 38.1%, followed by solid waste disposal accounting for 33.5%, industrial wastewater treatment accounting for 25.2%, incineration of waste accounting for 2.3%, and biological treatment of waste accounting for 0.9%. Breakdown of emissions in 2014 by gas shows that the largest contributor to the emissions is CH4 accounting for 89.9%, followed by N2O accounting for 7.9%, and CO2 accounting for 2.1%. The emissions from this sector had decreased by 53% compared with 1990 levels and decreased by 5% compared with 2013 levels.

Greenhouse gas, waste sector, national inventory report (NIR), uncertainty, Monte Carlo method