EPA-106-FA12-02-A054

106

3,420 千元

2017/01/06

2017/12/31

陳正平教授

監資處

黃建瑋

國立臺灣大學

大氣空氣、環境監測及檢測

空氣品質預報，動力模式，中國大陸沙塵與本土河川揚塵

air-quality forecast, dynamic numerical model, Mainland China and local riverside mineral dust

朱定中研究員；蔡宜君助研究員

黃鏡芸

02-33663942#

jingyun@aerosol.as.ntu.edu.tw

本計畫針對臺灣地區的空氣品質預報作業進行系統之研發與維護，並提供作 業上必要的協助。主要工作內容包括中尺度氣象動力模式、東亞沙塵動力模式 (TAQM/KOSA;WRFDUST)、本土沙塵動力模式(TAQM/TWKOSA)以及第三代空氣 品質動力化學模式(CMAQ)的維運。資料分析的部分完成動力模式的預報輸出結 果與監測站的監測資料，包括WRF氣象模式的氣象變數輸出、空氣品質模式的臭 氧、懸浮微粒與細懸浮微粒濃度進行分析。為提高空氣品質預報的能力，也進行 空氣品質模式預報觀測校驗工作，找到動力模式可改進的部分，未來可回饋於修 改模式的參考依據。現行模式敏感因子分析，以環保署７３個測站進行臭氧、懸 浮微粒與細懸浮微粒濃度分析。針對一般污染分析完成環保署各測站及七大空品 區模式模擬與觀測污染物濃度日變化序列校驗，並分析彙整近１年空氣品質不良 案例，高污染個案分析完成一起中國大陸霾害及一起本土擴散不良影響臺灣空氣 品質事件之個案。在協助環保署進行預報的部分，包括派有計畫專案人員協助整 理氣象局供應之資料，整合分析沙塵及空氣品質預報資訊，提供各種預報決策參 考所需的資料。本計畫也支援提供環境保護署的組織學習教育訓練，以及計畫主 持人於中國大陸沙塵事件日提供專家諮詢意見並且參加檢討會議。 本年度模式運作的變更主要為提升空氣品質模式在臭氧、懸浮微粒及細懸浮 微粒預報能力，對空氣品質模擬失準之因素進行初步分析，調整後的本土揚塵已 於２０１７年７月起上線作業，提供給預報人員參考評估。

空氣品質預報，動力模式，中國大陸沙塵與本土河川揚塵

EPA_2017計畫成果報告(定稿).pdf

29MB

期末報告定稿

2018/2/1 上午 12:00:00

The purpose of this project is to maintain the performance of forecasting systems and to facilitate daily forecast of air quality over the Taiwan region. The main work included the maintainance and operation of the mesoscale numerical forecasting model, the China dust dynamic numerical model, the local dust dynamic model, and the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model. Both the characteristics of atmospheric variables from the dynamic numerical model’s output, and the concentrations of ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 computed from the air quality model have been analyzed. The result from the previous models would help improving the performance of the dynamic numerical model in the future. Currently, the sensitive factors analysis of is performed by comparing the concentrations of O3, PM10 and PM2.5 with that from the 73 EPA monitoring stations. For general pollution analysis, the modeled concentrations and diurnal variations of the pollutants are compared with the observation of EPA monitoring stations and seven air quality districts, respectively. A severesmog event originated from the mainland China, and a serious air pollution event due to poor local dispersion, are being analyzed. To help the daily forecasting in EPA, special-duty manpower is assigned to work in EPA for organizing and integrating all of the information to offer the referral for the pre-warning decision, and supporting the organization learning. The expert opinion from project director is provided to EPA during the Mainland China severe dust events forecasting meeting. In this year, the performance of the operation models is improved. Especially in the ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 forecasting capabilities. The preliminary analysis for misalignment of model performance on air quality simulation has provided guidance for adjustment in the dust model. The modified TWKOSA version has been submitted since July 2017.

air-quality forecast, dynamic numerical model, Mainland China and local riverside mineral dust