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The Development of Ensemble Model for Air Quality Forecast System

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In addition to the seasonal transboundary pollution included sandstorm and haze from China, the air quality of Taiwan and Taiwan’s offshore islands are also affected by the local pollutants. Caused by different lifestyle, geographical factors and weather condition, the time and spatial variability of air quality are quite different from space to space. Therefore, the 2 objective forecast technology development is significant for the air quality forecast. The major goal of this project is to develop objective air quality forecast guideline. The objective air quality forecast guideline combines with numerical dynamic model forecast and statistics forecast method which is an important basis for air quality forecast of villages and towns’ scale. There are three key aspects in this work. First, the expansion for current objective forecast guide products, including maintenance of existing statistic model DMOS and the development of statistic post-processing model DCA and DMOS. Second, operation and maintenance of EPA CMAQ-OP1.0 model on high-performance computing system in CWB and upgrade feasibility assessment for CMAQ-OP1.0 is also included. Last is the maintenance and expansion for forecast editor system and forecast calibration system. Besides improving the forecast editor system and forecast calibration system, the graphic air quality forecast products have been provided including the forecast products from other work teams.
Keyword
Objective forecast, Dynamic Model Output Statistics (DMOS), Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system
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