110

12,700 千元

溫室氣體盤查交易管理

2021/04/14

2021/12/31

劉哲良

環管處

葉惠芬

財團法人中華經濟研究院

大氣空氣、環境影響評估

臺灣抵換專案、碳定價、溫室氣體減量成本、經濟衝擊影響評估、環境影響評估、開發案增量抵換機制

Taiwan Offset Project, Carbon Pricing, GHGs Abatement Cost, Economic Impact Analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment, Development Project Emission Offset Program

林俊旭；羅時芳

林宗昱

02-27356006#5161

tsungyu@cier.edu.tw

本計畫包含五大工作項，以下分別就各工作項之執行成果，進行簡要綜整說明。 第一工作項目：減量專案制度精進與減量專案案件協審 本年度完成的工作內容，簡述如下 1.已就國際減量額度相關制度進行蒐研，如：加拿大聯邦溫室氣體抵換系統、中國碳減排核證機制等國家層級資訊，以及聯合國清潔發展機制（CDM）、共同減量（JI）、自願碳標準（Verified Carbon Standard，VCS）、以及黃金標準（Gold Standard，GS）等最新發展資訊。 2.針對國內外減量專案審議機制進行比較，並就國內減量方法簡化與推廣減量專案之申請資料填寫與審查程序簡化上提出改善建議。 3.彙整與分析非管制對象參與國際減量倡議與自願減量機制間之關聯。 4.在溫室氣體減量專案/減量方法的審查作業辦理上，本年度完成以下事項：（1）案件協審：本年度工作成果截至11月，共協助辦理5場次溫室氣體成效認可審議會、56件次減量專案/減量方法審查作業、以及29件次專案小組初審會議；（2）針對我國減量額度彙整資料統計表、即時提供溫室氣體抵換專案審查進度表；（3）更新指定平台國際減量方法數量及版本；（4）辦理2場次自願減量機制說明會。 第二工作項目：開發案溫室氣體管理作業審議及追蹤監督作業 本年工作成果包含以下事項： 1.制度建構：環評溫室氣體項目審查制度化，分析歸納出5大類型14小類型之開發行為溫室氣體審查重點，有助於加速未來環評審查程序，另透過彙整國際開發行為溫室氣體管理方式及案例，有別於以開發類型做為區隔，國際經驗藉由區分不同排放量，並依排放量級提出應執行溫室氣體環境影響評估的項目。 2.協助案件審查工作：統計至2021年12月20日止，共協助127件環評開發行為之個案審查及分析、3件環評監督案追蹤檢點作業。已結案之環評開發行為排放增量為12,151.1萬公噸CO2e/年，減量為6,358.0萬公噸CO2e/年，淨增量為5,793.1萬公噸CO2e/年。 3.國內額度供需分析：從額度供給面來看，扣除已註銷以及已到期之減量額度後，可用於環評抵換之減量額度，係由已指定用途之減量額度1,712萬0,161公噸CO2e，以及無期限可自由流通使用之減量額度1,412萬6,209公噸CO2e所構成。而短期之內（近十年內）最大的減量額度需求者為大林電廠環說案，預期累計至2030年額度需求量為3,654萬公噸CO2e。整體而言，減量額度供需市場，雖短期呈現供不應求，但因大林電廠環評案調整其排放總量承諾，就長期來看，隨著未來抵換專案額度申請與核發，預期額度供給持穩，供給端壓力則將降低。 第三工作項目：協助審查開發行為執行溫室氣體增量抵換案件 本年工作成果包含以下項目： 1.建立程序與表單：建立開發行為溫室氣體排放量增量抵換作業審查程序及完成4項表單設計。 2.協助案件審查工作：統計適用環評抵換處理原則且已通過環評審查案，預估自2026年起每年約有61.2萬公噸之抵換量需求。 3.抵換量來源研擬：研擬植樹造林可應用對象、減量計算方式及相關參數。 4.維護與更新平台主網頁之內容與抵換專案資訊，以及審查溫室氣體減量抵換資訊平台在地減量資訊。 第四工作項目：溫室氣體減量成本效益與衝擊評估 本年工作成果包含： 1.針對GACMO減量成本資料工具中所包含的減量措施之單位減量技術成本進行彙整，並配合技術可行的本土化參數進行減量技術成本調整。 2.分析本年度抵換專案執行成效，可帶來171.75百萬元~888.38百萬元的減碳環境效益及帶動整體產業5,920.57百萬元的產值效果。 3.分析本年度六輕環評減量投資，可帶來71.91百萬元~371.94百萬元的減碳環境效益及帶動整體產業3,187.8百萬元的產值效果。 4.以當年度臺灣本土化之產業數據，更新產業層次之投資基準值，以做為投資外加性分析之判定依據。 5.完成調產業結構後的產值、GDP及就業乘數推算。 第五工作項目：徵收溫室氣體排放費用方案規劃及研析 本年度之工作成果主要針對每公噸課徵100元與300元的碳費費率方案進行產業層次及總體經濟層次之經濟衝擊影響分析。在產業層次的分析中，採用「產業風險矩陣法」來進行各產業面對碳費方案的風險落點分析。其結果可用於辨視出不同費率方案下、潛在需要導入配套措施的產業類別、以降低其所可能遭受的衝擊。在總體經濟層次上，則分別使用進階的「投入產出模型」與「可計算一般均衡模型」進行短期及長期時間尺度下的衝擊模擬。依據模擬結果，無論在100元/公噸或300元/公噸的費率方案下，對於總體經濟的衝擊影響皆不顯著；且在經長期時間尺度的調整後，對於GDP與CPI的衝擊影響，在不同費率方案下，皆可降低近30%及50%，此一結果亦反應目前臺灣整體經濟對於碳費的調適能力。

臺灣抵換專案、碳定價、溫室氣體減量成本、經濟衝擊影響評估、環境影響評估、開發案增量抵換機制

110年溫減定稿(公開版).pdf

9MB

2022/6/1 上午 12:00:00

There are five main work items in this project; the results achieved for each item are summarized as follows. Work item 1: improvement of voluntary reduction mechanism and supporting works of offset project review 1.Summarize the status of international voluntary reduction mechanism, including the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Verified Carbon Standard (VCS), Gold Standard (GS), and some similar mechanism implemented on countries or region. 2.Compare the review process of domestic and international reduction projects and make recommendations on the current review process in Taiwan. 3.Summarize the application of reduction credit on the international GHGs management related voluntary initiatives. 4.In terms of “supporting works of offset project review”, the results this year include: (1) a total of 4 greenhouse gas reduction outcomes approval review meetings; (2) 56 offset projects / reduction methodology review, and 29 review meetings of technical experts are completed; (3) the results of the project review and expert meeting are compiled and submitted to the Taiwan EPA for record every week; (4) Held two briefings for the Taiwan Offset Project. Work item 2: GHGs management of development projects 1.Institutionalize the review and support of environmental impact assessment greenhouse gas projects related to greenhouse gas management. As a result, the review guidelines for 5 major types and 14 sub-types of development activities were summarized and documented to support further review work. 2.Project review: a total of 127 cases were reviewed and analyzed, and 3 environmental impact assessment monitoring cases were tracked. 3.Performance measurement: according to statistics, so far, the incremental emissions from development projects that have passed the environmental impact assessment are 121.51 million tons, a reduction of 63.58 million tons, and a net increase of 57.93 million tons. 4.Approximately 80 million tons of emission reduction credits have been issued, of which 14.12 million credits are no limitation on usage. It is estimated that the future issuance of credit lines will reach 57 million tons, but considering the potential demand, there is still a possibility of over demand. Work item 3: The design and implementation of Development Project Emission Offset Program 1.Establish a review procedure for the Emission Offset Program of greenhouse gas emissions for development projects. 2.Complete the statistics of cases applying Emission Offset Program. It is estimated that there will be about 612,000 tons of emission offset credit demand every year from 2026. 3.Study the reduction methodology and related technical parameters for afforestation and reforestation. 4.Maintain and update the content of the information platform for offset credit. Work item 4: Economic Analysis for response measures 1.Calculate the abatement cost of the reduction technologies included in the GACMO database and adjust the reduction technology cost in accordance with the Taiwan localized parameters. 2.Evaluate the performance of the implementation of Taiwan Offset Project this year. It is estimated that it can bring about 171.75 million to 888.38 million NTD in carbon reduction environmental benefits and drive the overall industry output value of 5,920.57 million NTD. 3.Conduct GHGs emission reduction investment assessment on selected cases undertaking environmental impact assessment emission reduction commitments. It is expected to bring about 71.91 million to 371.94 million NTD in environmental protection benefits and drive the industry's overall output value to 3.187.8 billion NTD. 4.Use Taiwan localized financial data to update the investment benchmark value to support the analysis of investment additionality on Taiwan Offset Project. 5.Update the IO model to reflect the industrial structure in 2021 and estimate the production, GDP, and job multipliers based on the updated model for further applications. Work item 5: The design and economic impact analysis of Taiwan Carbon Levy Carry out the economic impact analysis at the industry level and the macroeconomic level for the carbon levy design rate of 100 NTD/ton and 300 NTD/ton. In the analysis of the industry level, the “risk matrix approach" is used to analyze the risk location of each industry facing the carbon levy design. The results can be used to identify the types of industries that potentially need to introduce supporting measures under different carbon levy design to reduce the impact they may suffer. At the macroeconomic level, "advanced input-output model" and "computable general equilibrium model (CGE)" are used to stimulate the economic impacts on short-term and long-term time scales. According to the simulation results, no matter under the fee rate of 100 NTD/ton or NTD yuan/ton, the impact on the overall economy is not significant; and after a long-term time scale adjustment, the impact on GDP and CPI under different fee rate design, it can be reduced by nearly 30% and 50%. This result also reflects the current overall economy’s ability to adapt carbon levy in Taiwan.

Taiwan Offset Project, Carbon Pricing, GHGs Abatement Cost, Economic Impact Analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment, Development Project Emission Offset Program