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111-112年度空氣品質多模式預報技術研發計畫

專案計畫編號	MOENV054112004
經費年度	111
計畫經費	7,430 千元
預算科目	空氣品質監測
專案開始日期	2022/08/09
專案結束日期	2023/12/31
專案主持人	馮智勇
主辦單位	環境部監測資訊司
承辦人	陳荸之
執行單位	多采科技有限公司
專案分類	大氣空氣
中文關鍵字	CMAQ 空氣品質動力模式、機率預報、貝氏模型平均法
英文關鍵字	Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, Probability Forecast forecast, Bayesian model averaging (BMA)
協同主持人
共同主持人
計畫聯絡人	楊智閔
計畫聯絡電話	02-29334260#38
計畫聯絡信箱	zhiminyang@manysplendid.com

中文摘要	近年臺灣與離島地區空氣品質，除了受到季節性境外移入的中國沙塵暴與霾害影響外，本土排放污染源也是影響空氣品質重要的因素。為提升空氣品質預報能力，持續且穩定地提供客觀空氣品質預報指引，本期計畫完成空氣品質數值動力模式 CMAQ-OP1.0 與CMAQ-OP2.0 於中央氣象署 HPC 環境下的自動化預報流程及模式輸出統計法(MOS)、動態模式輸出統計法(DMOS)、誤差衰退平均法(DCA)客觀預報指引產製及貝氏模型平均法(BMA)預報作業流程的維運；整合及更新中央氣象署 WRF 數值天氣預報三維層場資料；維運與優化空品預報評估平台功能及預報編輯系統…等工作。本計畫亦延續過去工作成果，擴充升級自動化預報作業，完成 CMAQ-OP2.0 的預報作業優化，使得 CMAQ-OP2.0 得將預報時間由舊有 84 小時擴充至 120小時，由 1 日 2 次預報增加為 1 日 4 次預報。除了動力模式外，本計畫亦進行有機率預報、長期空品預報的開發，以期能進一步改善目前的預報產品。
中文關鍵字	CMAQ 空氣品質動力模式、機率預報、貝氏模型平均法

中文摘要

近年臺灣與離島地區空氣品質，除了受到季節性境外移入的中國沙塵暴與霾害影響外，本土排放污染源也是影響空氣品質重要的因素。為提升空氣品質預報能力，持續且穩定地提供客觀空氣品質預報指引，本期計畫完成空氣品質數值動力模式 CMAQ-OP1.0 與CMAQ-OP2.0 於中央氣象署 HPC 環境下的自動化預報流程及模式輸出統計法(MOS)、動態模式輸出統計法(DMOS)、誤差衰退平均法(DCA)客觀預報指引產製及貝氏模型平均法(BMA)預報作業流程的維運；整合及更新中央氣象署 WRF 數值天氣預報三維層場資料；維運與優化空品預報評估平台功能及預報編輯系統…等工作。本計畫亦延續過去工作成果，擴充升級自動化預報作業，完成 CMAQ-OP2.0 的預報作業優化，使得 CMAQ-OP2.0 得將預報時間由舊有 84 小時擴充至 120小時，由 1 日 2 次預報增加為 1 日 4 次預報。除了動力模式外，本計畫亦進行有機率預報、長期空品預報的開發，以期能進一步改善目前的預報產品。

中文關鍵字

CMAQ 空氣品質動力模式、機率預報、貝氏模型平均法

類型	檔名	檔案大小	說明	最新版公開日期
期末報告	期末報告_上傳.pdf	49MB		2024/1/16 上午 12:00:00

摘要	In addition to seasonal transboundary pollution included sandstorm and haze from China, the local pollution also plays an important role in Taiwan. To improve the ability of air quality forecast and provide objective forecast guideline continuously and stably. The following works have been done in the plans, including the maintaining of the statistical correction methods DCA, DMOS, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) and the automatic forecasting procedures of numerical dynamic air quality forecast model CMAQ-OP1.0 and CMAQ-OP2.0 on high performance computer facility in Central Weather Administration (CWA-HPC).Additionally, we also have been Integrated and updated the three-dimensional meteorological field data of eather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, and optimized the air product forecast evaluation platform and the forecast editing system, etc. Following the results of pervious plan, this work continues maintaining and expanding existing automatic forecasting procedures. In this work, we keep maintaining and updating the automatic forecasting procedures, and optimize CMAQ-OP2.0 forecasting procedure simultaneously to make forecast time extend from 84 to 120 hours and forecast times from twice a day to four times a day. Besides, we also develop air quality probability forecast, long-term air quality forecast to improve the existing forecast product.
英文關鍵字	Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, Probability Forecast forecast, Bayesian model averaging (BMA)

摘要

In addition to seasonal transboundary pollution included sandstorm and haze from China, the local pollution also plays an important role in Taiwan. To improve the ability of air quality forecast and provide objective forecast guideline continuously and stably. The following works have been done in the plans, including the maintaining of the statistical correction methods DCA, DMOS, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) and the automatic forecasting procedures of numerical dynamic air quality forecast model CMAQ-OP1.0 and CMAQ-OP2.0 on high performance computer facility in Central Weather Administration (CWA-HPC).Additionally, we also have been Integrated and updated the three-dimensional meteorological field data of eather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, and optimized the air product forecast evaluation platform and the forecast editing system, etc. Following the results of pervious plan, this work continues maintaining and expanding existing automatic forecasting procedures. In this work, we keep maintaining and updating the automatic forecasting procedures, and optimize CMAQ-OP2.0 forecasting procedure simultaneously to make forecast time extend from 84 to 120 hours and forecast times from twice a day to four times a day. Besides, we also develop air quality probability forecast, long-term air quality forecast to improve the existing forecast product.

英文關鍵字

Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, Probability Forecast forecast, Bayesian model averaging (BMA)

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