EPA-91-FA11-03-A165

091

3,400 千元

2002/05/24

2002/12/31

吳黎明

空保處

工研院能資源所

化學物質管理

氣候公約,能源工程模型,減量措施,減量策略,最低成本

Least-Cost,Abatment Strategy,Energy Engineer Model,Abatment Measure

蔡政修

為因應聯合國氣候變化綱要公約，世界各國進行二氧化碳減量之策略與作法雖有不同，但利用模型工具進行政策先期模擬與分析則屬一致，或以之評估政策、措施之減量效益、或以之預測減量造成之衝擊、或以之協助減量相關政策之形成等。本計畫之主要目的，即在藉由深入瞭解國際間模型扮演之角色及利用模型進行模擬分析之作法，擷取國際經驗，以利我國在利用能源工程模型MARKAL與能源經濟模型MARKAL-MACRO進行二氧化碳減量方案之評估時，其過程與結果能獲得國際認同。 為與國際比對及查驗MARKAL模型模擬之做法與成果之差異，本計畫蒐集與分析國際間重要國家利用能源工程模型進行政策模擬之流程，包括情景設計、假設條件、減量目標、技術參數及結果分析等，以吸取經驗；為尋求適合我國國情之最有利二氧化碳減量目標，本計畫除以全國能源會議結論暫定之絕對減量目標為依據進行模擬分析外，另參考國際實例，以京都議定書之標準及一組與經濟發長相依之彈性或相對減量目標進行分析，以全頻域方式，深入瞭解何種目標之設定對我國最為合理與有利，且能符合國際共識；為剖析產業結構變化對我國未來二氧化碳排放之影響，以及各部門之邊際減量成本之差異，本計畫以政府單位或學界所預測之產業結構為基礎，以及善用MARKAL模型中線性規劃之偶模型數學特性，進行外生產業結構調整之衝擊分析及成本估算，做為我國二氧化碳減量策略檢討或研擬之參考。 在進行各項模擬工作時，敏感度分析將適度應用，以充分瞭解關鍵參數對分析結果之影響。

氣候公約,能源工程模型,減量措施,減量策略,最低成本

0000028739.zip

4MB

[期末報告]公開完整版

2014/10/31 下午 02:07:46

Although strategies and measures taken to address climate change are different in each country, there do exist similarity that every country utilizes the approach of model analysis to evaluate CO2 abatement policies, either to project the greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption, and/or to formulate mitigation policies. By understanding the way international countries adopt to simulate the CO2 emission reductions policies, it is essential for Taiwan MARKAL and MARKAL-MACRO models to compare how the developed and developing countries around the world are using engineering models for GHG abatement analysis. To realize the differences from model practices and outcomes between Taiwan and other countries is important in the respect of using the models efficiently and correctly. The main purpose of this project is to re-evaluate the national carbon dioxide emission trend with MARKAL and MARKAL-MACRO models. Evaluation will be approached based on updated national outlook on economic development. Comprehensive information from international resources and domestic conditions from National Energy Conference Conclusions will be referred for model preparation and run. The feasibility that meets the tentative country’s carbon dioxide emission reduction target will be explored through a variety of elastic and tentative targets setting. Based on scenario approach, pathways to reach the reduction requirements will be researched and analyzed in each scenario. Strategies and measures for sector’s emission reduction will be studied for priority ordering and specifically the sector marginal reduction cost will be computed as well.

Least-Cost,Abatment Strategy,Energy Engineer Model,Abatment Measure