EPA-91-FA11-03-A100

091

5,450 千元

2002/05/28

2002/12/31

台灣大學生工系童慶斌

空保處

國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程學系

化學物質管理

全球暖化、溫室效應、溫室氣體、水資源、模擬

Global Warming, Greenhouse Effects, Greenhouse Gases, Water Resources, Simulation

張斐章、林裕彬、李明旭、柳文成、謝龍生

國立台灣大學吳明進

本研究計畫成立目的即在透過資料收集與分析，與進一步模擬研究，提供我國「國家通訊報告」中有關氣候、水文、生態之衝擊與調適策略資料建置，第一年之工作內容則以氣候與水文資料建置為主，氣候資料分析工作項目包括氣候變遷預設情境設立與台灣區域氣候資料分析模擬與預報；衝擊評估與調適策略之分析項目包括集水區流量、農業灌溉需水量、供水系統、地下水補注量及防洪系統等。各項衝擊評估主要發現為 (一) 氣候 分析1942-2001年資料，全省各地氣溫增加，降雨則各地增減不一，各月份亦有差異。以大氣環流模式與區域氣候模式模擬結果分析，雖然不同模式間預測值有差異，然大部分案例顯示，溫度有逐漸上升趨勢，而降雨則有極端化之現象。 (二) 集水區流量 多數情境模擬顯示豐水期流量增加，隱含著洪水災害增強的可能性；枯水期流量減少，可能乾旱情形可能嚴重化；且豐枯水期差異變大，將造成水資源調配的困難。 (三) 農業灌溉需水量： 一期作的初期需水量是增加的，後期則因生長期縮短而有減少的趨勢，二期作有相同的趨勢，但初期受到夏季雨量的增加影響需水量上升幅度不大。受氣候變遷衝擊，各期作灌溉需水集中化，將直接影響到未來水資源調配的問題。 (四) 供水系統 由各情境模擬結果顯示因豐枯水期的流量差異變大，將增加水資源調配以及供水系統操作的困難，灌溉用水需求集中化與新工業區規劃增加未來供水系統之壓力，如何透過管理、節約用水與發展替代蓄水設施及水源為重要之課題。 (五) 地下水補注量 地下水補注量與蒸發散量、地表逕流量以及降雨量息息相關，分析結果顯示，台灣全區之地下水補注量以長時間來看有漸減的趨勢，且在豐枯水期有極端化的傾向，豐水期時補注量增加而枯水期時之補注量則減少。

全球暖化、溫室效應、溫室氣體、水資源、模擬

0000063993.zip

21MB

[期末報告]公開完整版

2014/10/31 下午 02:07:46

The purpose of this study is to provide information of climate, hydrology, and ecosystems for writing our National Communication Report. This study focuses on climate and hydrology in the first year. Climate analysis includes setup climate change scenarios and climate simulation for Taiwan region. The tasks of impact assessment include streamflow, irrigation water demand, water supply systems, groundwater recharge, and flood mitigation. The major findings are (1) Climate Analyzing recorded weather data of 1942 through 2001, the trend of temperature increase for the whole Taiwan area can be confirmed, but the trends of precipitation are not consist in different locations or different seasons. On the other hand, although predictions by different GCMs or region climate model are different, the trend of increase temperature and more extreme precipitation can be seen in most cases. (2) Streamflow Simulation results from most scenarios indicate that streamflows in humid period increase due to climate change, but decrease in dry period. It may cause the risk of more serious flood and drought. Besides, the enlarged difference of streamflows between two seasons will bring more difficulty in water resources management. (3) Irrigation Water Demand Due to higher temperature, both quantity and distribution of irrigation water may be changed. In the first growing season, the water requirement for irrigation is increased in early growth stage, but significantly reduced in later months due to shorten growth periods. In the second growing season, increase of irrigation water in early growth stage is not significant due to increase of rainfall. Centralized irrigation water demand will cause difficulty in water resources management. (4) Water Supply Simulation results indicate the increase of difference between streamflows of humid and dry seasons may bring difficulty to water resources allocation and operation. Centralized irrigation water demands and new industrial water uses may increase more pressure on water supply system. Thus, managing water resources systems, saving water uses, developing alternative storage and water resources are important issues. (5) Groundwater Recharge Groundwater is closely related to evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and rainfall. Simulation results indicate that groundwater recharge of Taiwan Island will very likely gradually decrease. The difference of groundwater recharge in humid and dry seasons will become more. (6) Flood Mitigation Because streamflow increases, there is more potential risk of overflow from embankment. Besides, the design standard of pumping station and drainage systems may need to be evaluated accordingly. The integrated operational rules of flood mitigation also require regularly being re-evaluated and adjusted. This study not only evaluates the impacts of climate change, but also provides adaptations. These adaptations are suggested based on major findings in this study and experiences of studies of other countries.

Global Warming, Greenhouse Effects, Greenhouse Gases, Water Resources, Simulation