EPA-93-FA11-02-A089

093

4,100 千元

2005/04/02

2005/12/31

蔡政修

空保處

財團法人工業技術研究院

化學物質管理

能源工程模型,溫室氣體,後京都減量目標,碳稅,,,,

MARKAL,GHG,Post- Kyoto commitments,carbon tax

蔡妙姍

蔡妙姍

03-5918104

marshatsai@itri.org.tw

一、我國CO2排放最大影響因素為GDP，我國單位GDP之CO2排放量亦高於全球平均值與OECD平均值。政府已制定非核家園目標，在現有技術條件下，未來化石能源仍為主要能源，CO2排放降低程度有限。因此研定我國未來溫室氣體減量目標時，朝向GDP排放密集度目標方向思考對我國較有利。 二、以「臺灣能源工程模型」評估五種後京都期減量承諾方式技術面、成本面及行政執行面之影響，評估項目、內容與結果如下： (一)減量情景：包括延續京都議定書情景、密集度情景、約束與收斂情景、三層疊架法情景(Triptych approach)、政策措施(policies and measures)。 (二)評估內容 1.定量分析：各種減量承諾方式之減量幅度與成本。 2.定性分析：以公平、環境效益、經濟衝擊、執行技術等原則評析各種減量承諾方式。 (三)評估結果 若以「成本」作為篩選減量模式之標準，GHG密集度情景-阿根廷模式對我國較有利。若以環境保護及國際談判成功率為篩選減量模式之標準，約束與收斂情景較有可能獲得國際支持，但我國邊際減量成本高於附件B國家，我國需進一步評估該情景對經濟之影響，研擬經濟工具配套措施，以降低成本負擔。 三、本計畫國際建構模型經驗交流目的本計畫模型功能拓展作業與研究議題與國際接軌。本計畫與國際5個機構聯繫結果如下： (一)可建立區域MARKAL模型與其他模型相結合，共同進行區域性溫室氣體減量策略評估。 (二)本計畫建置之電力部門溫室氣體前驅物資料庫之方式與國際相類似。 四、本計畫評估我國實施碳稅對能源系統技術效率提升效果。由本計畫48、120美元/噸CO2等二種碳稅模擬結果顯示：高效率技術提前於2020年進入能源系統者包括：煤炭氣化複循環發電技術(發電效率50％)、電弧爐效率提升20％、鍋爐效率提升5％、製程熱效率提升7~15％。

能源工程模型,溫室氣體,後京都減量目標,碳稅,,,,

00000758791.pdf

3MB

[期末報告]公開完整版

2005/5/1 上午 12:00:00

1. GDP is the most important factor for Taiwan’s CO2 emissions. Given the target of “Nuclear-free Homeland” set by the government, mitigation of CO2 emissions will be difficult for Taiwan in the future. 2. This project has evaluated five Post-Kyoto targets, including the Continuing Kyoto target, GHG Intensity target, Contraction and convergence target, Triptych approach, and Coordinated Policies and measures. The marginal mitigation cost for the GHG Intensity target is lower than the others. 3. So far as many as five international institutions have been approached in efforts to expand the current model capability. The methodology of the electricity department GHG forerunner database, established by this project, is similar to those developed by international institutions. It was suggested that the “TAIWAN-MARKAL” could be linked to those models to shape the regional GHG mitigation policies in the future. 4. The effects of carbon tax were assessed under conditions of US$48/tCO2 and US$120/tCO2. It was shown that conducting the measure of carbon tax could facilitate the entrance of advanced technologies into market. The following technologies are accelerated entering into market prior to 2020: IGCC plant with 50% efficiency, arc furnace with 20% efficiency improved, boiler with 5% efficiency improved, and heater with 7-15% efficiency improved.

MARKAL,GHG,Post- Kyoto commitments,carbon tax