EPA-94-FA11-03-A222

094

1,790 千元

2005/08/10

2005/12/31

台灣大學農經系徐世勳

空保處

中山大學政治經濟系 李秉正

化學物質管理

京都議定書,溫室氣體減量,TAIGEM-E,能源結構,產業結構,總體經濟

Kyoto Protocol, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, TAIGEM-E, Energy Structure, Industrial Structure, Macro-economy

中山大學政治經濟系李秉正、世新大學行政管理學系林子倫、政治大學地政系徐世榮

葉志欣

02-33662667

gold@ms15.url.com.tw

本計劃旨在後京都議定書時期與台灣非核家園政策背景下，以能源、經濟與環境3E達到台灣永續發展為前提，研究各主要國家（包括美、日、韓、英、德等）、研究機構（如EMF, MIT, 美國德拉瓦大學能源與環境政策研究中心與澳洲MONASH大學政策研究中心等）結合能源技術與總體經濟之作法，推動國際合作，並建立以二氧化碳減量衝擊影響評估為分析重點，結合能源技術與總體經濟兩面向之評估方法與模型，推估2005年至2030年國家總體經濟與產業經濟關聯互動與環境政策、能源結構與產業結構調整對總體經濟之影響與能源別二氧化碳排放量趨勢，亦即預測CO2排放基線。透過本計劃所建立之能源經濟模型與符合永續能源及環境策略，以永續發展為原則，評估我國因應聯合國氣候變化綱要公約及京都議定書之溫室氣體減量彈性方案，並以94與95兩年為研究期間。94年度以TAIGEM-E預測結果為主要研究成果，95年度則嘗試建立台灣能源經濟整合模型。 本計畫第二章回顧能源與溫室氣體排放減量政策之國內外現況、趨勢及相關研究；第三章探討國內外能源情勢，分析比較目前國內外能源供需情形及未來趨勢；第四章介紹EMF、MIT及由美國德拉瓦大學能源與環境政策中心 (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, University of Delaware) 與韓國相關研究單位所合作發展出的 JISEEF (Joint Institute for a Sustainable Energy Future) 能源模型。JISEEF 所發展出的能源、經濟與環境的分析方法與研究結果，對於韓國能源與環境政策的制定，產生很大的影響，對於本研究的模型與資料庫建置，甚具參考價值。 第五章介紹以澳洲MONASH模型為基礎，根據台灣總體經濟與產業結構的特色，所發展之動態TAIGEM-E (Taiwan General Equilibrium Model – Energy)CGE模型，為由上而下的(Top-down)模型。TAIGEM-E模型為結合能源替代、CO2排放基線預測、12種最新發電技術之技術配套之動態可計算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE)，適合多投入、多產出、多部門之總體經濟模型，過去多次應用在台灣基線預測與CO2排放預測之研究，尤其是其包含最新12種發電技術之技術配套模型設計可以由下而上方式詳盡刻劃我國的電力部門，為一種結合由上而下與由下而上(Bottom-up)方式之重要模型，本計劃94年度將針對台灣因應京都議定書對溫室氣體減量法與溫室氣體減量推動方案策略進行政策模擬與經濟評估，並預測2005至2030年之CO2排放基線，以作為環保署因應策略之決策參考。 第六章為本研究結果，基線預測顯示台灣未來經濟將逐漸邁入成熟的經濟體，對於二氧化碳排放減量與能源使用效率的提升要有更有效的作法，本章以溫室氣體減量法（管制法）、第二次全國能源會議結論與國際間後京都減量模式為參考，以提高能源使用效率、降低能源密集度、提高電價與課徵碳稅四種政策八種模擬為減量二氧化碳之工具，發現效果十分顯著。 模擬結果顯示，根據溫室氣體減量法與第二次全國能源會議的結論，若以部門自願減量方式降低能源密集度、提高能源使用效率或提高電價確實可降低二氧化碳排放總量與其成長率，且對於實質GDP並無顯著衝擊，而自願減量為廠商與個人均在經濟誘因下採用新節能技術、設備、製程以生產產品，個人在政府宣導下，節約能源，使用節能家電、購買綠建築等，各部門的累積自發性節能效果，長期下對進口能源依賴程度降低，降低生產成本，資源重新配置在最有生產效率之產品，長期下對經濟反而有利，由模擬一至模擬四實質GDP成長率均高於基線預測可證明。即使是提高電價49％至99％對實質GDP影響也僅約0.1％，影響幅度有限但減量效果顯著。 觀察二氧化碳排放總量部分，本研究基線預測至2030年總排放為565.8億噸，模擬一至模擬六分別達到全國能源會議結論部門自行減量1.7億噸目標之14.82％與65.06％，其減量效果顯著，若再進一步輔以能源價格調整、再生能源與新能源之大量推廣、電力部門裝置容量與能源結構之調整、輸配電效率損失之降低等配合，可能不需課徵碳稅即可達成二氧化碳減量目標。

京都議定書,溫室氣體減量,TAIGEM-E,能源結構,產業結構,總體經濟

EPA94FA1103A222.pdf

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[期末報告]公開完整版

2006/6/1 上午 12:00:00

Under the background of Kyoto Protocol, Taiwan’s non-nuclear policy and its strong commitment to sustainable development, this project aims to study the practices and policies that combine energy, environment and economics (3E) of some major countries (including America, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, etc.). This research also explores the research results of some key research institutions (such as EMF, MIT; Energy & Environmental Policy, University of Delaware; the Centre of Policy Studies of Monash University) and tries to find a way to promote international cooperation with them. How to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and to set up the impact assessment is one of the key goals of this analysis. The assessment model combining energy, technology and economics estimates the macroeconomic effect and the trend of CO2 emission that are caused by the interaction among national macroeconomics, industrial economy, environment policy, energy and industrial restructure from 2005 to 2030, namely predicts the CO2 emission baseline. This project sets up the energy environmental model that accords with requirement of sustainable development and environment policy to assess the elasticity scheme of the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions according to the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. The research period of this project is scheduled on 2005 and 2006. In 2005, the outcome of TAIGEM-E model is the main achievement of this research; later on, this study tries to set up the Taiwan energy economic integrated model in 2006. The first chapter of this project mainly outlines research background, goals and research approaches. The second chapter broadly reviews the situation, trend and researches of domestic and foreign countries’ experiences about energy and mitigation policies of greenhouse gas emission. The third chapter analyzes domestic and foreign countries’ energy situation and compares domestic and foreign countries’ energy supply and demand situation at present and their future trends. The fourth chapter introduces EMF, MIT and JISEEF model. The CEEP in US and the relative research institutes in Korea develop the JISEEF model. Researchers of the JISEEF model develop the analytic path among energy, economics and environment, and its results have huge effect for Korea to set up its energy and environment policies. The result of JISEEF is valuable for this study helping to set up the model and database. The fifth chapter introduces the dynamic CGE (computable general equilibrium) model in Taiwan, named TAIGEM-E (Taiwan General Equilibrium Model – Energy), which is derived from the Australian MONASH model. The TAIGEM-E model was originally belonged to top-down model; however, it has transformed itself to combine energy substitute, CO2 emission baseline forecasting, and technical bundles of twelve latest power-generating technologies as a multi-input, multi-output and multi-sector macroeconomic model. This model has been applied both to Taiwan baseline forecast and to CO2 emission forecast many times, and it has received highly appraised in Taiwan society. Once again, one important character of this model is that it has incorporated technical bundles of twelve latest power-generating technologies that could use bottom-up approach to depict the power-generating behavior of Taiwan electricity sector. Depending on Taiwan’s Greenhouse Gas Mitigating Drafting Law and some mitigation policies this model combines top-down and bottom-up approaches for policy simulation and economic assessment. It also predicts Taiwan’s CO2 emission baseline from 2005 to 2030 in order to help the Environmental Protection Administration to make its decision. The sixth chapter presents the simulation results of this research. According to the baseline forecast, Taiwan’s economy will reach the stage of maturation, which will force Taiwan to have much efficient arrangements or reduction for its CO2 emission and energy consumption. Based on Taiwan’s Greenhouse Gas Mitigating Drafting Law, the conclusions of the Second National Energy Conference, and foreign countries’ mitigation experiences required by the Kyoto Protocol, Results of those eight simulations in this research demonstrate that there are great potentials for Taiwan to reduce its CO2 emission. The instruments adopted at this research are lifting energy efficiency, reducing energy density, raising electricity prices and levying carbon taxes. Voluntary reduction from different electricity sectors will lessen CO2 emission and does not have negative effects on real GDP. With incentives for voluntary reduction at hand, industries and individuals choose the following approaches to reach the CO2 reduction goals: new energy saving technologies for industrial production, housing energy saving programs and purchasing green buildings for individuals, and etc. In the long run it is very helpful for Taiwan economy since Taiwan will decrease its dependence on foreign oils import and cut production cost. Resources will be efficiently reallocated to the most productive goods. However, even though electricity prices are lifting from 49% to 99% in the future its impact on real GDP is only 0.1%. It tells that the negative impact is very limited; on the contrary, the effect is enormous.

Kyoto Protocol, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, TAIGEM-E, Energy Structure, Industrial Structure, Macro-economy