環保專案成果報告查詢系統

專案計畫編號	EPA-95-FA11-03-D066
經費年度	095
計畫經費	2,300 千元
專案開始日期	2006/04/07
專案結束日期	2007/02/28
專案主持人	徐世勳
主辦單位	空保處
承辦人	黃偉鳴
執行單位	台灣大學農業經濟系
專案分類	化學物質管理
中文關鍵字	京都議定書、溫室氣體減量、TAIGEM-E、能源結構、產業結構、總體經濟
英文關鍵字	Kyoto Protocol, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, TAIGEM-E, Energy Structure, Industrial Structure, Macro-economy
協同主持人	徐世榮
共同主持人	李秉正
計畫聯絡人	許聖民
計畫聯絡電話	smhsu1978@ntu.edu.tw
計畫聯絡信箱	smhsu1978@ntu.edu.tw

中文摘要	本計劃旨在後京都議定書時期與台灣非核家園政策背景下，以能源、經濟與環境3E達到台灣永續發展為前提下，研究各主要國家（包括美、日、韓、英、德、荷蘭、歐盟等）、研究機構（如EMF、MIT、AIM、WorldScan、GREEN、美國德拉瓦大學能源與環境政策研究中心與澳洲MONASH大學政策研究中心等）結合能源技術與總體經濟之作法，推動國際合作，並建立以二氧化碳減量衝擊影響評估為分析重點，結合能源技術與總體經濟兩面向之評估方法與模型，推估2005年至2030年國家總體經濟與產業經濟關聯互動與環境政策、能源結構與產業結構調整對總體經濟之影響與能源別二氧化碳排放量趨勢，亦即預測CO2排放基線。透過本計劃所建立之能源經濟模型與符合永續能源及環境策略，以永續發展為原則，評估我國因應聯合國氣候變化綱要公約及京都議定書之溫室氣體減量彈性方案， 95年度則建立聯合JISEEF與TAIGEM-E兩模型為台灣能源經濟整合模型。本計畫回顧能源與溫室氣體排放減量政策之國內外現況、趨勢及相關研究及探討國內外能源情勢，分析比較目前國內外能源供需情形及未來趨勢；並且介紹國際間IPCC與FCCC常見之模型與EMF、MIT及由美國德拉瓦大學能源與環境政策中心 (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, University of Delaware) 與韓國相關研究單位所合作發展出的 JISEEF (Joint Institute for a Sustainable Energy Future) 能源模型。JISEEF 所發展出的能源、經濟與環境的分析方法與研究結果，對於韓國能源與環境政策的制定，產生很大的影響，對於本研究的模型與資料庫建置，甚具參考價值。本研究建構TAIGEM-E模型與JISEEF模型之間軟連結，並進行台灣基線預測和針對溫室氣體減量法草案與第二次全國能源會議之結果進行五種政策模擬。而根據基線預測結果顯示，台灣未來經濟將逐漸邁入成熟經濟體，對於二氧化碳排放與能源使用的降低需有更有效的作法，也才有可能逐漸符合京都議定書之減量要求。另一方面，由於台灣並無官方之BAU資料，則整理國內各模型CO2排放基線預測之結果與本模擬結果相比較，以作為環保署因應策略之決策參考；另一方面，根據溫室氣體減量法草案與第二次全國能源會議之結論的五種政策模擬情境，若政府以部門自願自行減量方式降低能源密集度、提高能源使用效率或提高電價，確實可降低二氧化碳排放總量與其成長率，且對於實質GDP並無不妥影響，而自願減量為廠商與個人均在誘因下採用新節能技術、設備、製程以生產產品，個人在政府宣導下，個人節約能源，使用節能家電、購買綠建築等各部門的累積自發性節能效果，長期下對進口能源依賴程度降低，降低生產成本，資源重新配置在最有生產效率之產品，長期下對經濟反而有利，由模擬結果(排除課徵碳稅)實質GDP成長率均高於基線預測可證明。即使是提高電價99％對實質GDP影響也僅約0.1％，影響幅度有限但減量效果很高。惟觀察二氧化碳排放總量部分，本研究基線預測至2030年總排放為655.9億噸，模擬結果分別達到全國能源會議結論部門自行減量1.7億噸目標之34.59％與68.26％，其減量效果非常好，如此可知，若再輔以能源價格調整、再生能源與新能源之大量推廣、電力部門裝置容量與能源結構之調整、輸配電效率損失之降低等配合，可能不需課徵碳稅即可達到預期的目標，這也表示以碳稅管制二氧化碳排放仍是最後手段。
中文關鍵字	京都議定書、溫室氣體減量、TAIGEM-E、能源結構、產業結構、總體經濟

中文摘要

本計劃旨在後京都議定書時期與台灣非核家園政策背景下，以能源、經濟與環境3E達到台灣永續發展為前提下，研究各主要國家（包括美、日、韓、英、德、荷蘭、歐盟等）、研究機構（如EMF、MIT、AIM、WorldScan、GREEN、美國德拉瓦大學能源與環境政策研究中心與澳洲MONASH大學政策研究中心等）結合能源技術與總體經濟之作法，推動國際合作，並建立以二氧化碳減量衝擊影響評估為分析重點，結合能源技術與總體經濟兩面向之評估方法與模型，推估2005年至2030年國家總體經濟與產業經濟關聯互動與環境政策、能源結構與產業結構調整對總體經濟之影響與能源別二氧化碳排放量趨勢，亦即預測CO2排放基線。透過本計劃所建立之能源經濟模型與符合永續能源及環境策略，以永續發展為原則，評估我國因應聯合國氣候變化綱要公約及京都議定書之溫室氣體減量彈性方案， 95年度則建立聯合JISEEF與TAIGEM-E兩模型為台灣能源經濟整合模型。本計畫回顧能源與溫室氣體排放減量政策之國內外現況、趨勢及相關研究及探討國內外能源情勢，分析比較目前國內外能源供需情形及未來趨勢；並且介紹國際間IPCC與FCCC常見之模型與EMF、MIT及由美國德拉瓦大學能源與環境政策中心 (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, University of Delaware) 與韓國相關研究單位所合作發展出的 JISEEF (Joint Institute for a Sustainable Energy Future) 能源模型。JISEEF 所發展出的能源、經濟與環境的分析方法與研究結果，對於韓國能源與環境政策的制定，產生很大的影響，對於本研究的模型與資料庫建置，甚具參考價值。本研究建構TAIGEM-E模型與JISEEF模型之間軟連結，並進行台灣基線預測和針對溫室氣體減量法草案與第二次全國能源會議之結果進行五種政策模擬。而根據基線預測結果顯示，台灣未來經濟將逐漸邁入成熟經濟體，對於二氧化碳排放與能源使用的降低需有更有效的作法，也才有可能逐漸符合京都議定書之減量要求。另一方面，由於台灣並無官方之BAU資料，則整理國內各模型CO2排放基線預測之結果與本模擬結果相比較，以作為環保署因應策略之決策參考；另一方面，根據溫室氣體減量法草案與第二次全國能源會議之結論的五種政策模擬情境，若政府以部門自願自行減量方式降低能源密集度、提高能源使用效率或提高電價，確實可降低二氧化碳排放總量與其成長率，且對於實質GDP並無不妥影響，而自願減量為廠商與個人均在誘因下採用新節能技術、設備、製程以生產產品，個人在政府宣導下，個人節約能源，使用節能家電、購買綠建築等各部門的累積自發性節能效果，長期下對進口能源依賴程度降低，降低生產成本，資源重新配置在最有生產效率之產品，長期下對經濟反而有利，由模擬結果(排除課徵碳稅)實質GDP成長率均高於基線預測可證明。即使是提高電價99％對實質GDP影響也僅約0.1％，影響幅度有限但減量效果很高。惟觀察二氧化碳排放總量部分，本研究基線預測至2030年總排放為655.9億噸，模擬結果分別達到全國能源會議結論部門自行減量1.7億噸目標之34.59％與68.26％，其減量效果非常好，如此可知，若再輔以能源價格調整、再生能源與新能源之大量推廣、電力部門裝置容量與能源結構之調整、輸配電效率損失之降低等配合，可能不需課徵碳稅即可達到預期的目標，這也表示以碳稅管制二氧化碳排放仍是最後手段。

中文關鍵字

京都議定書、溫室氣體減量、TAIGEM-E、能源結構、產業結構、總體經濟

類型	檔名	檔案大小	說明	最新版公開日期
期末報告	EPA95FA1103D066.pdf	2MB	[期末報告]公開完整版	2007/9/1 上午 12:00:00

摘要	Under the background of Kyoto Protocol, Taiwan’s non-nuclear policy and its strong commitment to sustainable development, this project aims to study the practices and policies that combine energy, environment and economics (3E) of some major countries (including America, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, Holland, European Union，etc.). This research also explores the research results of some key research institutions (such as EMF, MIT, AIM, WorldScan, GREEN; Energy & Environmental Policy, University of Delaware; the Centre of Policy Studies of Monash University) and tries to find a way to promote international cooperation with them. How to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and to set up the impact assessment is one of the key goals of this analysis. The assessment model in this study combining energy, technology and economic components estimates the macroeconomic effect and the trend of CO2 emission that are caused by the interaction among national macroeconomics, industrial economy, environment policy, energy and industrial restructure from 2005 to 2030, namely the CO2 emission baseline forecasting. This project sets up the energy -environmental- economic model that accords with requirement of sustainable development and environment policy to assess the flexibility mechanism of the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions according to the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. In 2006, this study tries to set up the basic framework of the Taiwan energy economic integrated model. The project broadly reviews the situation, trend and researches of domestic and foreign countries’ experiences about energy and mitigation policies of greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, this study analyzes domestic and foreign countries’ energy situation and compares domestic and foreign countries’ energy supply and demand situation at present and their future trends. This study also introduces IPCC 's and FCCC 's international well-known models, e.g., EMF, MIT and JISEEF models. The CEEP in US and its cooperative research institutes in Korea develop the JISEEF model. Researchers of the JISEEF model develop the analytic path among energy, economics and environment, and its results have significant effect for Korea to set up its energy and environment policies. The result of JISEEF is valuable for this study in helping to set up the model and database. This study makes a soft link between TAIFEM-E model and JISEEF model, then forecasts the baseline of Taiwan and carries on five kinds of policy simulations. According to the baseline forecast, Taiwan’s economy will reach the stage of maturation, which will force Taiwan to have much efficient arrangements or reduction for its CO2 emission and energy consumption, and may just accord with the decresing demand for Kyoto Protocol gradually. On the other hand, there are no official BAUs in Taiwan. This study put together those results from different domestic CO2's baseline forecasting in order and compare with their simulation results. The simulation results of five kinds of policies demonstrate that voluntary reduction from different electricity sectors will reduce CO2 emission and does not have negative effects on real GDP. With incentives for voluntary reduction at hand, industries and individuals choose the following approaches to reach the CO2 reduction goals: new energy saving technologies for industrial production, housing energy saving programs and purchasing green buildings for individuals, and etc. In the long run it is very helpful for Taiwan economy since Taiwan will decrease its dependence on foreign oils import and cut production cost. Resources will be efficiently reallocated to the most productive goods. However, even though electricity prices are expected to increase by 99% in the future its impact on real GDP is only 0.1%. It demonstrates that the negative impacts are very limited; on the contrary, the positive effects are enormous. According to the baseline forecast in this study, the total CO2 emission at 2030 is 65.59 billion tons. Simulation results show that we can reach 34.59% and 68.26% reduction of 0.17 billion tons respectively, which is the voluntary reduction amount from the conclusion of the Taiwan’s Second National Energy Conference. The mitigation results are significant. Accompanying with the restructuring of energy prices, the introduction of renewable energy, adjustment of energy structure and installment capacity of power sector, and etc., Taiwan probably does not need to levy carbon tax. It also means from this research that carbon tax is the last means to reach our goals. This shows that it is still the last resort to control the carbon dioxide emission with the carbon tax.
英文關鍵字	Kyoto Protocol, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, TAIGEM-E, Energy Structure, Industrial Structure, Macro-economy

摘要

Under the background of Kyoto Protocol, Taiwan’s non-nuclear policy and its strong commitment to sustainable development, this project aims to study the practices and policies that combine energy, environment and economics (3E) of some major countries (including America, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, Holland, European Union，etc.). This research also explores the research results of some key research institutions (such as EMF, MIT, AIM, WorldScan, GREEN; Energy & Environmental Policy, University of Delaware; the Centre of Policy Studies of Monash University) and tries to find a way to promote international cooperation with them. How to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and to set up the impact assessment is one of the key goals of this analysis. The assessment model in this study combining energy, technology and economic components estimates the macroeconomic effect and the trend of CO2 emission that are caused by the interaction among national macroeconomics, industrial economy, environment policy, energy and industrial restructure from 2005 to 2030, namely the CO2 emission baseline forecasting. This project sets up the energy -environmental- economic model that accords with requirement of sustainable development and environment policy to assess the flexibility mechanism of the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions according to the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. In 2006, this study tries to set up the basic framework of the Taiwan energy economic integrated model. The project broadly reviews the situation, trend and researches of domestic and foreign countries’ experiences about energy and mitigation policies of greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, this study analyzes domestic and foreign countries’ energy situation and compares domestic and foreign countries’ energy supply and demand situation at present and their future trends. This study also introduces IPCC 's and FCCC 's international well-known models, e.g., EMF, MIT and JISEEF models. The CEEP in US and its cooperative research institutes in Korea develop the JISEEF model. Researchers of the JISEEF model develop the analytic path among energy, economics and environment, and its results have significant effect for Korea to set up its energy and environment policies. The result of JISEEF is valuable for this study in helping to set up the model and database. This study makes a soft link between TAIFEM-E model and JISEEF model, then forecasts the baseline of Taiwan and carries on five kinds of policy simulations. According to the baseline forecast, Taiwan’s economy will reach the stage of maturation, which will force Taiwan to have much efficient arrangements or reduction for its CO2 emission and energy consumption, and may just accord with the decresing demand for Kyoto Protocol gradually. On the other hand, there are no official BAUs in Taiwan. This study put together those results from different domestic CO2's baseline forecasting in order and compare with their simulation results. The simulation results of five kinds of policies demonstrate that voluntary reduction from different electricity sectors will reduce CO2 emission and does not have negative effects on real GDP. With incentives for voluntary reduction at hand, industries and individuals choose the following approaches to reach the CO2 reduction goals: new energy saving technologies for industrial production, housing energy saving programs and purchasing green buildings for individuals, and etc. In the long run it is very helpful for Taiwan economy since Taiwan will decrease its dependence on foreign oils import and cut production cost. Resources will be efficiently reallocated to the most productive goods. However, even though electricity prices are expected to increase by 99% in the future its impact on real GDP is only 0.1%. It demonstrates that the negative impacts are very limited; on the contrary, the positive effects are enormous. According to the baseline forecast in this study, the total CO2 emission at 2030 is 65.59 billion tons. Simulation results show that we can reach 34.59% and 68.26% reduction of 0.17 billion tons respectively, which is the voluntary reduction amount from the conclusion of the Taiwan’s Second National Energy Conference. The mitigation results are significant. Accompanying with the restructuring of energy prices, the introduction of renewable energy, adjustment of energy structure and installment capacity of power sector, and etc., Taiwan probably does not need to levy carbon tax. It also means from this research that carbon tax is the last means to reach our goals. This shows that it is still the last resort to control the carbon dioxide emission with the carbon tax.

英文關鍵字

Kyoto Protocol, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, TAIGEM-E, Energy Structure, Industrial Structure, Macro-economy