EPA-96-FA14-03-D071

096

6,550 千元

2007/06/08

2007/12/31

張艮輝

空保處

呂昌祺

國立雲林科技大學

化學物質管理

容許增量限值,管制策略,有效性評估,臭氧

allowed increment limit, control strategy, effective assessment, ozone

蔡俊鴻,莊秉潔,陳王琨,賴信志,余泰毅,林文印,林沛練

張能復

鍾欣伶

05-534-2601#4417

hsing@airlab.yuntech.edu.tw

依據空氣污染防制法第六條(適用於屬二、三級防制區的行政區)，或者是空污法第八條(必須施行總量管制)，在其申請「新設污染源設置許可証」，或已有許可證但工廠製程異動、以致其排放的污染物種類或是排放量達一定規模以上者，必須採行增量模擬與BACT等兩項空氣污染防制措施。然而，與空氣品質管理有極大關連的「容許增量限值管制工作」，自實施以來，已經發現有許多在制度上的問題。所以各縣市在核發許可証之前，應就其空氣品質監測結果，先研判那些污染物或前驅物分屬於二或三級防制區所必須加嚴的管制程序與標準。依據空氣污染防制法第七條，這項適法性研析工作，本來屬於各縣市每二年依法必須研修訂的「空氣品質維護改善計畫」的重要內容。然而，實際上這些計畫書缺少較為嚴謹的核備程序，以致各縣市的計畫書並沒有發揮預期空氣品質維護改善策略規畫之功能。本計畫運用空氣品質模式，並配合空氣品質及氣象觀測資料，模擬評估現行及未來不同管制情境對策對空氣品質之長期影響與衝擊之定量分析。本年度 完成之工作項目及相關成果依據計畫目標順序分別敘述如下： （一）有關『空氣污染防制法』第六條，推動「容許增量限值」制度及「相關行政支援」部份 1. 協助縣市環保局模式模擬之技術審查：已針對全國各地環保局與中技社的許可申請彙報資料，篩選59件的申請個案。其中，實際進行審查的案例共計22件。錯誤最多者為污染物排放量申報不確實（12件）以及污染防治設備效率不合理（10件）。工作底稿或相關資料未齊（2件）；技師簽證或技師證書影本資料未齊（1件）；SCC污染源分類碼引用錯誤（3件）；污染物物種申報不確實者（3件）；無法滿足VOC質量守衡條件者（4件），BACT資料填寫有誤(2件)。 2. 評估容許增量限值管制策略之實際效益：本計畫針對法定空氣污染物的歷年監測結果進行分析，且將臺灣地區分成北中南東四個地理區域。在排放量方面，建立一個定性的排放量指標，來推估歷年排放量的趨勢。另外，本年度同時評估2006年測站的PM2.5與PM10的濃度分佈，藉以了解台灣地區的PM2.5污染現況。 3. 辦理模式模擬認可審查作業：已建置完成模式認可所需使用之文件及資料庫且部份資料亦完成更新，並由主管機關完成發佈作業；目前GTx軌跡模式已完成認可作業，後續將加強宣導及訓練作業，ADMS模式亦已提出認可申請，目前正處於審查作業階段。 4. 空氣品質模式背景資料庫之蒐集、整理與分析：ISC3氣象資料部份，本計畫提供2000年~2006年共計六年的資料。環境影響評估資料，目前所彙整的資料是2007年8月15日前通過環境影響評估的固定污染源排放增量資料，並將彙整統計後之排放源增量資料與基準年(2000年)所增加的排放量相比較，之後將持續彙整環境影響評估案件之排放源資料至2010年。至於標準數據資料庫(氣象、空氣品質、排放源資料庫)，目前所提供的目標年是2000年與2003年。 5. 空氣品質模式支援中心網站之維護更新及諮詢服務：截至2007年10月底止註冊成為會員的人數為804人，平均每日132位訪客，每位訪客平均瀏覽3.0個頁面，平均讀取33個檔案。大部份都以參閱、下載資料庫以及操作線上模擬系統為主，會員多來自學校研究生、顧問公司、及本中心工作人員。空氣品質模式支援討論區可區分為十類，包含空氣品質模式、氣象資料與模式、排放源與排放模式、空氣品質觀測、教育訓練、策略評估、科技發展與國際交流、模式支援中心站務、測試區以及問題與答覆；討論區中文章總數為336篇，主題總數為132篇。 （二）有關『空氣污染防制法』第七條，模擬評估空品區及縣市現行及未來不同管制對策對空氣品質之長期影響與衝擊之定量分析部份 1. 建立並評析一年之長期氣象模擬資料庫：已完成利用MM5模擬2003年全年之長期氣象模擬資料庫，並提供空氣品質模式的模擬前置氣象條件。模式資料已進行與氣象局所屬測站觀測資料之比對，驗證結果良好。流場分析與個案軌跡計算結果顯示，台灣地形、環境風場以入侵地形的角度以及垂直風場的差異是決定空氣污染物傳輸路徑與累積地區的關鍵。 2. 評估竹苗、花東及宜蘭空氣品質區之空氣資源涵容度：評估竹苗空氣污染防制區之空氣資源涵容度評估結果顯示，以NOX：NMHC = 1：4進行減量，要達到2011年目標，竹苗地區NOX及NMHC兩者削減量各約是2000年基準排放量的1.7%、1.9%，亦即NOX允許排放量約820 T/yr，NMHC允許排放量約3,280 T/yr；宜蘭及花東空品區的模擬結果未超過120 ppb，故不探討允許排放量之推估。 3. 收集分析竹苗、花東及宜蘭空氣污染防制計畫之管制對策及其減量：已完成蒐集(1)中央推動之管制規範及執行計畫。(2)各縣市空氣污染防制計畫。(3)環保署推動之行業別管制規範及其他管制規範。(4)91~95年度縣市相關計畫清單共計46本執行管制相關計畫，其中已收集包括固定源管制相關計畫共計8本、移動源共9本、逸散源共19本及其它相關空氣污染管制計畫共10本，總計已完成收集44本。 4. 模擬分析縣市管制對策達成空氣品質改善之有效性：以一年期程進行模擬分析全台七大空品區管制對策達成空氣品質改善之有效性，分析結果顯示：以2011年管制前後臭氧污染發生率(O3>120 ppb)相比較，北部空品區之臭氧污染改善比例達82%左右。竹苗空品區臭氧污染改善比例約為82%。中部空品區臭氧污染改善比例約為67%。雲嘉南空品區臭氧污染改善比例約為72%。高屏空品區臭氧污染改善比例則約51%。宜蘭及花東空品區以臭氧濃度大於60 ppb來計算，其改善比例分別為22%及26%。 5. 模擬評估新設置大型污染源對不同地區空氣品質之影響：若以一年模擬期程之臭氧污染(O3>120 ppb)空間時數暴露量結果來看，於2000至2023年期間，北部空品區之臭氧污染空間暴露量比例約增加45%，竹苗空品區之臭氧污染空間暴露量比例約增加66%，而中部、雲嘉南及高屏空品區則分別增加43%、94%、44%，宜蘭及花東空品區以臭氧濃度大於60 ppb來計算，臭氧污染空間暴露量分別增加8%。 6. 長期模擬分析海域運輸污染物之長程傳輸對台灣空氣品質之影響：綜合我國各空品區模擬二個月份之結果，以關閉東亞海域運輸排放源為評估長程傳輸影響，海域運輸傳輸影響我國臭氧月平均濃度約為0.5 ppb，影響每日最大臭氧濃度平均為0.46 ppb，影響臭氧事件日之平均濃度為0.1 ppb。臭氧在日平均濃度及每日最大濃度平均上，具相當高度之一致性，顯示東亞海域運輸排放影響我國臭氧濃度約在0.5 ppb 左右，而在臭氧事件日之平均濃度較低，顯示東亞海域運輸排放影響我國高臭氧污染的情況較小，整體而言，東亞海域運輸排放影響我國臭氧濃度較並不明顯。在海域運輸傳輸影響我國日平均濃度方面，以花東空品區之0.64 ppb為最嚴重，其次是高屏及宜蘭空品區影響約為0.61 ppb及0.54 ppb，北部、竹苗、中部、雲嘉南空品區影響則約為0.45 ppb左右。

容許增量限值,管制策略,有效性評估,臭氧

KM-99976912-3.pdf

65MB

[期末報告]公開完整版

2008/5/1 上午 12:00:00

Air quality models are playing vital roles in tasks concerning the air quality planning and regulatory compliance checking. As the content of air quality models becomes more sophisticated, both in their scientific mechanisms and in their data input, a successful job requires different aspect in supports and specialties. Taiwan EPA urged by this requirement has established the Air Quality Modeling Center (TAQMC), which recruits expertise and data resources in different institutes over the Island and is connected over the Internet platform to carry out its missions. In this project, it is intended to layout the organization and operation of TAQMC. As an answer to please from the air pollution community, TAQMC’s operation is aimed to serve the community needs in three major areas, namely the expertise in advanced air pollution modeling, the data acquisition needs in model input and the computational platform needs. Furthermore, to meet the continuous challenge of both the scientific and legal advancement in the community, TAQMC also serves as the forum for new ideas and cooperative endeavors for future Air Quality. TAQMC supported in this project has been inaugurated for over four years. Six universities have been involved in hardware, software and data bank supporting tasks. Through the web site contents and online information retrieving services, TAQMC has achieved its minimum function required by its goals. Both the reduction in task duplications and improvement in service and job quality are widely noticed by the community. The prospective of a final dynamic air quality managing system through the daily operation of TAQMC is the consensus among the common participating members. According to the sixth and seventh terms in the air pollution control act, the sources applied to emit or change pollutant, which the quantity is larger than a certain value, have to demonstrate that their impact on air quality is below the tolerance values by air quality model. Therefore, air quality model become a necessary tool to determine the permit of stationary source. Besides, air quality model traditionally can be used on air quality management plan, air quality impact assessment, and state implement plan, and et al. The project of air quality modeling center is designed to support various air quality models in needs of regulation, administration, and development. The results are shown briefly as follows. 1. Assisted the technical examinations of air quality modeling for Environmental Protection Bureau of local government. On the basis of emission permit database, established by China Technical Consultants, this project screened 59 applications and completed 42 cases with detailed information. 2. Assess the benefits of the “Allowable incremental limits” strategy. This project analyzed the time series data of criteria air pollutants over four distinct regions and examined the benefits of the “Allowable incremental limits” strategy. This study also created an emission index for estimating the trend of emission over varied regions with air pollutant’s concentration and meteorological parameters. Besides, this study analyzed the PM2.5 and PM10 concentration over Taiwan in the year of 2006. 3. Examination of air quality modeling proof. The required documents and database were established and updated. The GTx trajectory model was validated, and further training and announce of this air quality model would be continued. The ADMS model was in the process for evaluation. 4. Collection and analysis of emission, meteorological, and ambient air database for air quality model. The formatted meteorological databases for ISC3 model were uploaded at web site of TAQMC from 2000 to 2006. The databases of emission, meteorological and ambient air quality for year 2000 and 2003 were gathered. The incremental emissions data of stationary sources those have passed EIA and will precede development before year 2010 were collected and compared with base year (year 2000). 5. Maintained, updated and consulted services of TAQMC. Until now, the members of TAQMC were 804 persons, average guests were 132 persons per days. The major tasks for visiting TAQMC were reading, downloading and performing on-line simulations. The discussing fields were categoried into ten types as air quality models, meteorological models, emission models, air quality obsearvation, educations, strategies evaluation, technique development and international exchange, routine tasks, tested and FAQs. The total articles and topics were 332 and 132 for discussing fields. 6. Using air quality model to evaluate the amount of allow emission in Chu-Miao, Yilan and Hua-Tung air basins. The results can provide the reduce emission that to improve the air quality in these basins in Taiwan. 7. Evaluation of long-term air quality impact assessment of 2011 new sources using air quality model in Northern, Chu-Miao, Central, Yun-Chia-Nan, Kao-Ping, Yilan and Hua-Tung air basins. The results can be used for making and adjustment control strategies to improve ozone air quality in Taiwan. 8. The impact of the emissions allowed by Environmental impact assessment (EIA) of future (2023) new source on air quality have been evaluated and quantified by long-term simulation of the whole year in 2003 using photochemical grid model. The results show that the high ozone days of Northern, Chu-Miao, Central, Yun-Chia-Nan, Kao-Pin Yilan and Hua-Tung air basins might be increased 45%, 66%, 43%, 94%, 44%, 8% and 8% respectively. It is implied that total emission allowed by EIA might result in serious impact on future air quality without furthermore control strategy. 9. During 2 months simulation period, the influences of East Asia shipping emission on ozone concentration are about 0.5 ppb for monthly average and 0.1 ppb for period average of high ozone days (ozone > 120 ppb).

allowed increment limit, control strategy, effective assessment, ozone