EPA-98-L105-03-001

098

3,100 千元

2009/01/15

2009/12/31

陳正平

監資處

吳國榮

台灣大學

環境資訊系統

空氣品質預報、沙塵模式、東亞沙塵、本土沙塵、MODIS、AOD

air-quality forecast, mineral dust model, East Asia mineral dust, local mineral dust, MOIDIS, AOD

Allen,Chu,王天胤

陳正平

02-33663937#

jpchen@webmail.as.ntu.edu.tw

本計畫針對台灣地區的空氣品質每日預報作業進行系統之研發與維護，並提 供作業上必要的協助。主要工作成果包括（1）維護現有「空氣品質預報輔助系 統」 ，發展空氣品質等級之機率預報系統；（2）維護本署東亞沙塵模式，每日進 行120小時之模擬提供事件的預警，同時研發空氣品質模式(CMAQ, WRF-CHEM) 與沙塵耦合系統，以提高未來例行作業效率； （3）本土沙塵模式每日提供72小 時預測，並針對台灣中南部河川起沙係數調整測試；（4）維護發展空氣品質動力 預報模式系統，包括模擬生質燃燒等等，提供72小時預測，以輔助例行性空氣 品質預報作業，評估動力系統逆排放調校的可能性，並針對本土排放與東亞排放 的評估結果分別提出未來調校的具體發展方向；（5）配合環保署與氣象局簽訂的 合作協議，進行各預報系統的建置、移植與維運； （6）發展MODIS高解析度(2 公里)反演AOD系統，提供分析及預報氣膠濃度，並且配合環保署與氣象局合作 協議將系統技術移轉氣象局；（7）分析10公里解析度 MODIS AOD與PM2.5的 關係獲得具體成果，未來可開發應用應用系統提供預報所需的輔助資訊，該結果 並投稿國際期刊已獲接受； （8）針對PSI>100之高污染事件與沙塵事件，進行個 案分析討論與預報檢討建議；（9）專人駐署每日協助分析氣象與空氣品質監測資 料進行預報與檢討作業。 未來系統的持續發展，將著重於整合統計預報系統與動力氣象預報系統的結 果，提高本署對於空氣品質正確預報的能力；逐步發展東亞與本土的排放逆調校 子系統；提供多種不同機制的東亞沙塵動力模式模擬結果，提高預警的多樣性參 考；建立符合台灣地貌現況的本土沙塵系統地表資訊，與發展高解析度（10公 里、5公里與2公里）的MODIS AOD反演系統，以符合台灣地小人稠與複雜地 形的空氣品質預報需要為目標。

空氣品質預報、沙塵模式、東亞沙塵、本土沙塵、MODIS、AOD

EPA_98_L105_03_001.pdf

27MB

2010/2/1 上午 12:00:00

The purpose of this project is to develop and maintain forecasting systems to facilitate daily forecast of air quality over the Taiwan area. The main accomplishments include: (1) Maintain the “Air Quality Forecast Auxiliary System” to provide the information for daily forecast and develop probability forecasting for various classes of air quality levels; (2) Maintain and operate the “East Asia Mineral Dust Model” to provide results for 120 hours forecast, as well as develope dynamic numerical models (CMAQ、WRF-CHEM) coupled with mineral dust deflation scheme to decrease the run-time efficiently; (3) Maintain and operation the “Taiwan local Dust Model” to provide simulations for 72-hours forecast, and improve the dust deflation coefficients for the main river beds in central and southern Taiwan; (4) Maintain and continue to upgrade air quality numerical models (biomass burning included), to provide simulations of local and long range transport of air pollutants, and to assist routine operation for 72-hour forecasts; Evaluate inverse modeling for the adjustment of emission inventories over Taiwan and and East Asia so as to improve future simulation of pollutant concentration ; (5) Assist the porting and testing of all the above numerical systems to the High Performance Computation facility of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) under the agreement between CWB and EPA; (6) Develop the MODIS AOD retrieval system with a resolution of 2 km to improve aerosol concentration estimate and transfer the technology to CWB under the agreement between CWB and EPA; (7) Analyze the relationship between 10-km AOD and PM2.5 concentration for application in aerosol forecasting: (8) Conduct detailed analyses of selected air pollution episodes so as to improve air quality forecasts; (9) Provide special duty manpower in EPA for daily forecasts of air pollution. On-going works for the system sustainable development will focus on: elevating the air-quality forecasting capability by integrating the statistical model and numerical model, developing different numerical forecast models to offer diverse information for a better objective forecast, improvement of emission inventory for air quality numerical modeling, continuing development of MODIS AOD retrieval system, as well establishing a more accurate land-use type classification for a local-area mineral dust model, so that these quality daily forecast systems can be better suited for the Taiwan area that has complex terrain and geographical features.

air-quality forecast, mineral dust model, East Asia mineral dust, local mineral dust, MOIDIS, AOD