EPA-97-L105-02-202

097

1,750 千元

2008/03/07

2008/12/31

柳中明

監資處

尤思喻

國立臺灣大學全球變遷研究中心

環境資訊系統

紫外線指數,監測與預報, 儀器校驗

UV-Index, forecasting and monitor, calibration

譚俊傑

jjtarn@gcrc.ntu.edu.tw

本計畫以提高國內UV預報與監測之正確性為主要目標任務，專案目標為：一、UV預報準確率達75％以上。二、維護UV監測數值之正確性。三、擴充UV預報輔助系統資料庫。四、整合全台UV監測資料的完整性。 UV指數預報系統的維護與UV指數監測與預報結果的分析評估，均順利進行，相關數據及分析已上傳至UV預報輔助系統資料庫。UV監測資料有效率相當高，資料也漸趨平穩；預報成效分析方面，絕對誤差≦2、≦1的機率分別介於47%~100% (平均約為79%)、30%~94% (平均約為58%) 間。預測誤差的上下變動幅度逐年相近，未來仍應在主觀修正方面加強。 為維護UV監測數值之正確性，UV輻射計校驗實驗室於4月份進行新品輻射計之校驗，並於5-8月間進行測站輻射計現場平行比對、9-11月間進行測站輻射計校驗相關工作。 提高國內UV預報與監測之正確性及增進主觀預報的技術與技巧，本計畫除了發展臺灣地區近地面UV指數之數值模擬外，並安排專家座談，進行相關經驗分享，計畫執行單位 (臺大全球變遷研究中心) 與環保署共同舉辦「東亞地區UV監測與健康國際研討會」邀請日本、韓國及香港學者來臺分享其監測與預報的經驗。

紫外線指數,監測與預報, 儀器校驗

EPA97L10502202.pdf

14MB

[期末報告]公開完整版

2009/3/1 上午 12:00:00

The main task of this project is to enhance the UV forecast and monitoring in Taiwan, the purpose of this project is: (1) to maintain a UV forecasting accuracy up to 75％ or above; (2) to maintain the correctness of UV monitoring values; (3) to expand the database of UV forecast-assistance system; (4) to integrate the UV monitoring data in Taiwan. The maintenance of the UV index forecasting system and the analysis and assessment of UV index monitoring and forecast outcomes, are running well, and relating data and analysis were uploaded to UV forecast assistance system database. The validity of UV monitoring data is very high and data collected have been quite smoothly; in terms of forecast effective analysis, the probability of absolute errors being smaller than and equal to 2 and 1 is within 47%~100% (mean value was about 79%) and 30%~94% (mean value was about 58%), respectively. The fluctuation of forecasting errors have reduced yearly, still we will try to improve the subjective modification in the future. To maintain the correctness of UV monitoring values, UV Instrument Calibration Laboratory (UVICL) did the calibration of the new radiometers in April and made on-site radiometer-parallel-comparisons during May to August, and did radiometer calibration and related works during September ~ November. In order to enhance the validation of UV forecasting and monitoring, and improve the technique and skill of subjective forecasting in Taiwan. This project not only developed the surface UV index numerical simulation locally, but specialist symposium were also arranged to share relating experiences. Execution unit of this project, i.e. National Taiwan University Global Change Research Center (GCRC), and Environment Protection Administration (EPA) held「East-Asia Regional UV Symposium on Monitoring and Health Study」together, which invites researchers from Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong to share the experience about monitoring and forecasting.

UV-Index, forecasting and monitor, calibration