| 英文摘要 |
Emission inventory is very important in developing control strategies for air-quality management. The national emission inventory must be updated every 3 years due to the variation characteristics of emission in time and area. The up-to-date inventory, based on the emission in Year 2007, was first developed in 2009 as TEDS 7.0. It is reviewed by this project. Mistakes and errors are corrected and Version 7.1 of TEDS is then proposed. In addition, TEDS based on the emission in 2010 is prepared as well in this project. This is the first year of this two-year project. Major achievements are as followed.
1. Completion of validating abnormal emissions entries and amended these entries into TEDS 7.1. The resulted pollutant emission difference is 0.04% to 5.9% increased emissions in all pollutants (TSP, PM10, NOx, THC, and NMHC) except slight reduction in SOx emission. TSP has the highest correction among all.
2. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results are the followings. (a) Among point sources, SOx and NOx emission estimates have higher accuracy than TSP and VOCs. Fugitive emissions have the highest uncertainty and sensitivity. (b) Line source estimates are limited by the model applied. These estimate are slightly lower in accuracy than point source estimates. Statistics from vehicle mileage survey is the most sensitive factor to the resulted estimates. (c) uncertainty in area source estimates derived from coefficient parameterization, activity statistics and distribution indexes. Analysis results suggest combustion area source emission estimates are more accurate. Sensitivity analyses indicate SOx and NOx estimates are most sensitive to fuel combustion from commercial vessels. TSP is most sensitive to road dust from paved road and THC is most sensitive to the usage of general consumer products.
3. Investigation of river bank bare ground after August 2009 using satellite data will be the basis of activity estimate for dust emitted from river bank bare ground. This project assumes moist bare ground as potential dust emitting area. The resulted analysis suggests 38.6% of Zhuoshuixi River area is river bank bare ground, up to 51.9% for Pennan River. Estuarine has particularly greater bare ground area than others.
4. Emission estimates for 2008 inventory cycle gives total TSP emission estimate is 522,823 tons/year, total SOx is 129,511 tons/year, total NOx is 448,105 tons/year, total NMHC is 713,440 tons/year.
5. Through the effort in localizing AirControlNet, an air pollution control cost system, using a pre processing program and test run, this project recommends applying the resulted AirControlNet in the formulation of air pollution control strategy and policy.
6. Planning of emission inventory update submission methodology and establishing automatic submission network system will focus on the difficulties in the current national emission control system and methodology and existing faults in TEDS. The suggested system will return emission reduction targets to relevant local agencies based on the emissions submitted. The suggested point source submission includes (a) Confirmation of the designated 20 highest emission sources, (b) Confirmation of the designated pollutant emission condition, and (c) Confirmation of sources flagged as on probation by the submitter. Area source submissions focus on parameters with high uncertainty and sensitivity. These parameters are mostly activities related to road dust on paved road, open burning, restaurants, dry cleaning, landfills, bare ground, and joss paper burning.
7. Other results include estimates for balance of green accounting in air quality gross domestic income(GDI) and assist in 2009 SIP evaluation and statistics analyses for counties and cities(the results will used in yearly performance evaluation, updating relevant web resources, administration support operation and etc. The green accounting results have submitted to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics to take into consideration for the annul green accounting in GDI.
|