| 英文摘要 |
The purpose of this project is to develop and maintain forecasting systems to facilitate daily forecast of air quality over the Taiwan area. The main accomplishments include: (1) Maintain the “Air Quality Forecast Auxiliary System” to provide the information for daily forecast and develop probability forecasting for various classes of air quality levels; (2) Maintain and operate the “East Asia Mineral Dust Model” to provide 120 hours forecast, as well as develop dynamic numerical models (CMAQ、WRF-CHEM) coupled with mineral dust deflation scheme to increase operational efficiency; (3) Maintain and operation the “Taiwan local Dust Model” to provide simulations for 72-hours forecast, and improve the dust size distribution for the main river beds over central and southern Taiwan in the local dust model; (4) Provide model forecasting output for the local river dust warning, perform statistical analysis between local dust generation and meteorological parameters, then assess the feasibility of statistical forecasting; (5) Maintain and continue to upgrade air quality numerical models (including biomass burning model), to provide simulations of local and long range transport of air pollutants, and to assist routine operation for 72-hour forecasts; (6) Assist the porting and testing of all the above numerical systems to the High Performance Computation facility of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) under the agreement between CWB and EPA; (7)Analyze the relationship between AOD、ground truth of meteorological factor and aerosol vertical distribution, so as to facilitate future application of PM2.5 forecast: (8) Analyses selected air pollution episodes for the purpose of improving air quality forecasts; (9) Provide special-duty manpower to EPA for daily forecasts of air pollution; (10) Complete testing the CMAQ model to allow operation in the coming year.
On-going work for sustainable development of the forecasting systems will focus on: elevating the air-quality forecasting capability by integrating the statistical model and numerical model, developing different numerical forecast model systems to offer diverse information for a better objective forecast, improving emission inventory for air quality numerical modeling, continuing development of MODIS AOD retrieval system, as well establishing a more accurate land-use type classification for a local-area mineral dust model, so that these air quality daily forecast systems can better cope with the conditions of complex terrain and geographical features over the Taiwan area.
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