| 英文摘要 |
The project collected and analyzed the researches on the issues of greenhouse gas emission managements and strategies in major countries including America, Canada, EU, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Korea and China as well as in Taiwan. In addition, the feasibility of current greenhouse gas emission management strategies on agricultural and forestry sectors in Taiwan was evaluated.
Taiwan did not join the international treaty- the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and is not regulated by the Kyoto Protocol. Nevertheless, Taiwanese government is actively involved in related activities according to previous experiences on participating in global environmental conventions. In present, all parties have to submit National Communication and exchange information between countries in order to Provide useful information for the possible adaptation strategies with respect to climate change.
Therefore, the research firstly estimated the amount of greenhouse gas emission on agricultural and forestry sectors in Taiwan, and then built the model which covers all data on agricultural, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry sectors based on Agricultural Sector Model, ASM. Scenario settings from MESSAGE model on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, were used to be specific to A2 and B2 scenarios in Asian region for greenhouse gas emission prediction on agricultural and forestry sectors. The simulation results show that greenhouse gas emission in B2 scenario where represents a moderate population growth with sustainable development of economic and the environment will be lower than emission in A2 scenario where represents a high population growth with low economic and technical growth.
In response to dominant impacts of climate change which caused by global warming on agriculture production and ecology, Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan has suggested actions on Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Measures, NAMAs. Therefore, the project discussed the impact of domestic greenhouse gas emission management strategies on agricultural and forestry sectors by model analysis.
In agricultural sector, the simulations of planting bioenergy crops given the subsidy on yams and sugar canes and alternative carbon prices and alcohol prices were analyzed. In addition, the research on management of fertilizer usage was conducted when the current fertilizer subsidies by the government was eliminated. On forestry sector, the problems implementing afforestation activities were assessed from three perspectives: land, management and technology, and the impacts of implementing afforestation activities on agricultural and forestry sectors. On fishery sector, greenhouse gas emission estimation and assessment were discussed according to NAMAs reduces the ship and stops catching fish’s policies.
The simulation results show that present greenhouse gas emission management strategies on agricultural and forestry sectors all contribute efficient control and reduction in greenhouse gas emission. Agricultural and forestry sectors have great potential for greenhouse gas reduction. In combination with policies on climate change, environment improvement and sustainable development, impetus and implementation of national greenhouse gas reduction activities on agricultural and forestry sectors could be achieved in future.
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