| 英文摘要 |
In order to reveal the ambition of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) required the parties of this protocol to submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) for the intentions of reduction emissions by 2020 and the new elements for draft negotiating texts in Paris in 2015, which will make globally climate mitigation and adaptation actions extended to post-2020. The program can predominate the progress in negotiations of INDC under the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change, assist the commissioned panel to prepare the report on INDC, and promote the national determination on INDC by producing propaganda. The energy model is also applied in the program for developing a domestic low-carbon economy and predicting social scenarios in the future. In addition, international practice was gathered and researched in constructing the low-carbon development course, and evaluating the open mode of innovation applications. Each work under this program is in line with the milestone requirements; the progress implemented by each work summarized as follows:
1. Predominate the progress of negotiations of "Intended Nationally Determined Contributions" under the Convention
In the program, the formats, items, quantitative data and legal qualitative information etc. of INDC of the world's 188Parties (as of January 05, 2016), as well as a synthesis analysis report proposed by UNFCC, are gathered and analyzed. The emission reduction’s targets of intended determined contributions proposed by the aforementioned Parties will limit the predicted warming to about 2.7℃ by 2100. The results assessed by IEA, UNEP and other international think tanks are the same as 2.7℃ as proposed by the Convention. For significant targets of national INDC which were reviewed by major international think tanks. The EU extended 2020 emission reduction’s targets as well as the United States demonstrated the capability and took its responsibility, which both are among medium appropriateness targets of INDC. Mainland China merely extended its policy about the target of INDC, rather than met the goal of 2℃, its target was rated medium appropriateness; however, the target of carbon intensity is inappropriate. In addition, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore were among the inappropriate target levels of INDC, because they did not meet the goal of 2℃.
2. Initiate inter-ministerial meeting about the study of "Intended Nationally Determined Contributions" synthesis report
In the program, the reports on INDC from Switzerland and other countries were gathered, and the model and category of emission reduction’s target proposed by other countries were analyzed and summarized. Information has provided reference for setting the national target of INDC about the emissions reduction. The international think tank’s proposal about the planning process and content of INDC were also gathered and summarized in the program. In order to plan the national reporting structure and to prearrange the schedule about INDC, as a commissioned institution, inter-ministries meetings about INDC were summoned to discuss information and to build consensus between departments to complete the national report on INDC.
Furthermore, we can assist commissioned institution to convene 9 preparatory planning meetings, 12 INDC task force meetings, and 8 ministerial works discussion meeting. We also assist commissioned institution to convene relevant meetings, to explain the content, to plan principles of INDC to each department, and to communicate the planning spirit of INDC. We helped each department to propose feasible strategies on emissions reduction, and the report on INDC was eventually completed. Compare the target of the national INDC with those of other countries, the form of emission reduction’s target, coverage scope, and etc. are similar to those of advanced countries. Taiwan’s target for INDC relative to the emissions of 2005 and 2010 both are reduced. In comparison with South Korea, Singapore, and mainland China, we are more demanding and Taiwan’s target for INDC are ambitious.
3. Developing a domestic low-carbon economy and social scenarios may occur in the future.
In this program, the trends and changes of international energy prices, domestic economic, industrial structure, and energy consumption are all gathered and analyzed with the energy model. The energy demand and carbon emissions from domestic power plants, industries, resident, and service industries, transportation, and other sectors are evaluated which are the base for planning the domestic low-carbon economy, social scenarios in the future.
Depend on the trend of international energy price change, the oil price is influenced by the situation of oversupply at oil market which leads oil price a sharp decline in short term. However, in long term, the oil, coal, and natural gas prices will continue to rise. The domestic industrial structures will develop toward high-value and low energy consumption industry in the future. In the context of assessment, with different levels of developing renewable energy and various efficiency, six scenarios are planning. The results show that, if 2005 was used as the base year, in the scenario of high developed renewable energy and of high efficiency, CO2 has the highest reduction rate of 56.14%. Furthermore, we had reviewed the CO2 reduction rate by departments in all scenarios; the transport sector makes the largest contribution. Therefore, in the planning of carbon reduction ways in the future, in addition to the improvement of the efficiency of the devices and vehicles, it should increase the market share of low carbon vehicles (use electricity, hydrogen or biomass energy fuel).
4. Constructing policy evaluation mode of 3E low-carbon development course system
The program was organized through international models; it had provided various model data, theories, and literatures about climate change mitigation and adaptation foundation. In corresponding with the results of energy, environment, economy, and society at our country, and all these results can be used as references for constructing the model of low-carbon development paths, and the frame for systematic policy evaluation models.
The program had completed international and domestic climate change big data application by summarizing the related scientific research information. It can provide industries, government, and academic sectors for the applications during innovation incubation on climate change studying. Based on big data, the developed framework on climate change, the adaptation, and the mitigation of climate change data were used to simulate developing scenarios. It provides the commissioned institutions the construction ability, and the analysis applications from information. If IMAGE model is used for the corresponding work in Taiwan, in the scale of space and time, there is a need to lower the scale, depending on the needs of energy resources policy which divided into different areas; thus, constructing IMAGE model in Taiwan by now, data patterns integration is the most important work for the early stage.
5. Promote "Intended Nationally Determined Contributions" to allow international understanding the contribution of our country
The program had produced INDC web pages, and it assisted EPAT to convene November 17 INDC international press conference. Crucial information are prepared and produced, and printed as an understandable INDC propaganda with suitable illustrations. The summary report was provided in both Chinese and English for international advocacy on COP21 conference, and other appropriate occasions, as well as used for the domestic public as reference.
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