氣候變遷科技決策機制及低碳路徑整合評估規劃專案工作計畫(2/2)
| 中文摘要 | 本計畫二年執行期程的目的在運用長期能源替代規劃系統模型(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, LEAP)，建置我國環境綜合評估模型與資料庫，並結合區域投入產出模式、空氣品質模擬模型(Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling system, CMAQ) 及健康效益評估模式(Environmental Benefits Mapping and analysis Program, BenMAP)，進行區域低碳路徑整合評估規劃，評估長期低碳方案之溫室氣體減量、空氣品質及健康效益（共同效益）之影響，此為國內首次結合經濟-能源-溫室氣體-空污-健康評估模型，提供中央與地方政府溫室氣體與空污減量併同決策參考。 本計畫第一年運用長期能源替代規劃系統模型，完成臺灣本島五個區域經濟發展預測、LEAP 模型能源和空污排放係數資料庫，進行至2030 年區域電力、工業、住宅、服務業及運輸部門低碳策略情境模擬，評估五個區域環境改善效益和成本。本計畫第二年持續運用長期能源替代規劃系統模型，擴展模型至2050年本土化所需資料與格式，並增加農業部門耗能資料庫，模擬至2050 年區域各部門溫室氣體、空污減量效果及成本。此外，本計畫以LEAP 模型結 合空氣品質模擬模型、健康效益評估模式，進行電力部門區域低碳策略對環境影響與健康效益，建立下階段其他部門評估作業準則。本計畫減碳情境之最終能源需求量、溫室氣體排放量及空污排放量模擬結果以相對基準情境變動率表示，說明各減碳情境可能發展趨勢。由於國內區域產業別/運具別統計資料和調查資料尚未完整，本計畫初步模擬結果顯示，若按2017-2050 年GDP 成長率2.8%/年、2018-2050 年人口平均成長率-0.4%/年的社經發展趨勢，相對基準情境最大減碳潛力情況下，2050 年溫室氣體削減貢獻依序為電力部門占47%、工業占39.8%、住宅占4.5%、服務業占5.1%、運輸占3.5%、農業占0.1%。電力部門低碳化帶來空氣品質改善，推估可減少全國人口死亡貨幣化價值約為NTD489 億元，減少住院貨幣化價值約為NTD954 萬元。 本計畫亦協助環保署辦理「2018 臺英氣候變遷減緩策略論壇」，並與國內外相關領域的學者專家交流模型政策分析成果，提昇本計畫決策資訊的參考性。 LEAP 模型提供使用者較為簡易的操作平台，以可得的能源供需資料與社會/經濟假設條件，個別估算各種情境效果，提供未來政策效果變動趨勢，但目前國內區域產業別/運具別統計資料和調查資料尚未完整之處，LEAP 與CMAQ 模型間串連機制（單位能源空污排放係數）尚未完全，本計畫研究團隊將持續蒐集分析各產業/住宅/運具區域別能源消費相關資訊，完備LEAP 模型資料庫，並改善LEAP 單位能源空污排放係數，提供環保署合理的決策參考資訊。 | ||
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| 中文關鍵字 | 溫室氣體、環境效益、長期能源替代規劃系統 | ||
基本資訊
| 專案計畫編號 | 無 | 經費年度 | 107 | 計畫經費 | 8656 千元 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 專案開始日期 | 2018/08/03 | 專案結束日期 | 2019/04/30 | 專案主持人 | 蔡妙姍 |
| 主辦單位 | 環管處 | 承辦人 | 王俊勝 | 執行單位 | 財團法人工業技術研究院 |
成果下載
| 類型 | 檔名 | 檔案大小 | 說明 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 期末報告 | 氣候變遷科技決策機制研析及整合評估能力建構2期末報告F.pdf | 32MB |
Climate Change Science and Technology Decision Making Mechanism and Low Carbon Path Integration Assessment Plan (2/2)
| 英文摘要 | The project has conducted Taiwan’s long-term low-carbon scenario forecast in five main regions, including economy growth development, and the database of energy and air pollution diffusion by Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) with factor analysis. The results of first stage sectoral simulation and recommendations of low-carbon strategies are accomplished from sectors of energy, industry, resident, service and commerce, and transportation towards 2030 scenario. The assessed results from environmental and energy co-benefits as well as cost analysis reveal notable characteristics difference in five regions. The second year project is to continue using the LEAP model to explore the localized data and input formats required to construct nationally environmental integration assessment model for 2050 scenario. Through utilizing regional analysis by the LEAP model based on the input-output model to simulate low carbon path and mitigation potential; the results of assessment are also further linked to air pollutant diffusion model (CMAQ) and health assessment model (BenMap) for evaluating possible co-benefits. The integrated assessment model is applied with varied models of economy, energy, greenhouse gases (GHGs), air pollution diffusion and health benefits that can provide valuable information regarding to GHG mitigation and air pollution prevention for policymakers from the central authorities and local governments as reference. Under the LEAP modeling framework, the project has expanded and renewed the existing database for further assessment; meanwhile, the energy consumption database of agricultural sector has also added into the database this year. The renewed database in this project are then used for analyzing sectoral GHG emission trends, air pollutant deduction effects, and relevant mitigation costs. In this project, the method of air diffusion model and linked co-benefits on health is constructed from simulated results of the LEAP model. The low-carbon strategy of energy sector by regions has achieved for evaluating potential environmental impacts and health benefits, which can be further applied to other sectors. To deliberate future possible trends in varied low-carbon scenarios, the simulated results are expressed by variation rate in percentage to baseline scenario including final energy demands, GHG emission amounts and air pollutant emission amounts. The analyzed results reveal that the energy sector contributes more than 47% GHG deduction rate towards 2050 scenario compared to baseline scenario (BAU) based on the social and economic condition trends of expected annual growth rate of GDP per capita in 2.8% from 2017 to 2050, and average growth rate of population per capita in -0.4%. The remaining sectors also show GHG deduction contributions as follows: industry sector (39.8%), residential sector (4.5%), service ＆ commerce sector (5.1%), transportation (3.5%) and agriculture (0.1%), respectively. Compared to the results from the BAU scenario, most analyzed results of regional air pollutant diffusion assessment show decreasing trends in long-term low-carbon scenario. In the low carbon scenario of the power sector, the improvement in air quality has reduced NTD 48.9 billion of the population death, and the reduction in hospitalized monetization value is about NTD 9.54 million by 2050. In addition, the project has assisted Taiwan EPA to hold “2018 Taiwan-UK Climate Change Forum” in order to explore international information exchange channel for modeling policy development with scholars and expertise to addressing the valuable information for policymakers and international cooperation. The LEAP model has now proven that can provide a convenient platform to assess multiple scenario results with available database and proper social/economy assumption in this project. The helpful results can be referenced for future policymakers for varied policy implementation effectiveness. However, it is also found that few statistic and investigating database is short or uncompleted for several businesses and transportation methods. The research team will continue collecting sectoral energy consumption data for further analyzing under the LEAP model for the Taiwan EPA as policy making reference. | ||
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| 英文關鍵字 | Greenhouse Gas, Environment Effect, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System | ||