| 英文摘要 |
In addition to the seasonal trans-boundary pollution included sandstorm and haze from China, the air quality of Taiwan and Taiwan’s offshore islands are also affected by the local pollutants. Caused by different lifestyle, geographical factors and weather condition, the time and spatial variability of air quality are quite different from space to space. Therefore, the objective forecast technology development is significant for the air quality
forecast. The major goal of this project is to develop objective air quality forecast guideline. The objective air quality forecast guideline combines with numerical dynamic
model forecast and statistics forecast method which is an important basis for air quality forecast of villages and towns’ scale. There are three key aspects in this work. First,
upgrade EPA air quality model CMAQ-OP1.0 to CMAQ-OP2.0, which use CWB weather forecast result as weather input for air quality forecast, air quality model (CMAQ) version and
emission data is also upgraded in CMAQ-OP2.0. Second, Establish objective forecast product. Bayesian model averaging method is applied to integrate all the forecast products we have (includes numerical dynamic model and its statistic correction forecast products). BMA result is now provided in daily forecast. Last is the maintenance and expansion for air quality forecast and forecast calibration system. Besides improving the air quality forecast and forecast calibration system, the graphic of air quality forecast products are also provided including the forecast products from other work teams.
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