| 英文摘要 |
In addition to seasonal transboundary pollution included
sandstorm and haze from China, the local pollution also play
an important role in Taiwan. To improve the ability of air
quality forecast and provide objective forecast guideline. The
following works have been done in previous plans. Numerical
dynamic air quality forecast model CMAQ-OP1.0 and its
automatic forecasting procedures have been established on high
performance computer facility in Central Weather Bureau
(CWB-HPC), and providing forecast results every day. The
assessment of next version numerical dynamic air quality model
CMAQ-OP2.0 have been completed. And the automatic forecasting
procedures of 12UTC also have been established on CWB-HPC. The
statistical correction method DCA and DMOS were used to build
up the correction forecast. To develop the objective composite
forecast which integrate multi-forecast, the Bayesian model
averaging method is also introduced. Following the results of
pervious plan, this work continues maintaining and expanding
existing automatic forecasting procedures. Which establishes
00UTC forecast of CMAQ-OP2.0 and assesses the feasibility of
4 forecasts in one day and expanding of forecast time from 84
to 120 hours. Considering the safety and convenience for
maintaining of forecast display platform, new platform is
built, comparison of precipitation spatial distribution and
time series of forecast and observation in site position are
also provided for forecaster. Besides, we also analyze
statistic correction forecast, and propose the improvement
plan to elevate the correction forecast results.
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