我國環境、能源、經濟預測模型暨減碳多元情境先期規劃
| 中文摘要 | 2015年在聯合國氣候峰會通過的巴黎協定，冀望依靠各國的力量抑制全球暖化的失控趨勢，目標全球溫室氣體排放量須在2050年達到淨零。目前各主要國家皆針對淨零排放提出不同面向的策略，透過制定政策及法令，使各國在2050年完成淨零排放。討論淨零碳排目標與轉型路徑涉及國家長期減碳工程，政策包括國家能源比、產業綠色轉型、未來經濟社會發展願景以及新技術引進等議題，需要一系列基於科學基礎的研究佐證支持，此外，處理經濟發展與能源需求及溫室氣體排放的複雜性，須仰賴對不同模型的整合分析，以及未來情境的完整性評估才能提供政策支持。 因此，本研究以我國2050年淨零排放目標為主軸，利用一般均衡模型及相對應的資料庫，結合我國經貿發展，建立我國的一般均衡模型，並計算出2050年的基準情境；另外，建構減碳多元情境，評估相對應的經濟衝擊及政策路徑。也因溫室氣體減量排放牽涉其他能源工程模型及經濟發展等模型，故須整合不同模型，以及未來我國發展之情境，推估整體及主要部門的能源需求路徑，與國際之長期減碳整合模型進行比較分析。 本研究使用適合之經濟評估模型，如：短期使用產業關聯分析模型，評估各部門達成第二期階段目標，分析產業衝擊影響；中期運用一般均衡模型模擬碳費之影響，設計不同情境，模擬碳費其運用方式將對產業造成之影響；長期則運用本研究更新維護之TAIGEM模型，協助模擬分析第二期階段管制目標及部門策略對總體經濟與產業發展之可能衝擊影響，推估2025年溫室氣體排放趨勢，除了分析第二期階段管制之衝擊影響外，由於減量策略之推動亦會有投資成本，造成國家經濟衝擊，故亦須彙整各部門減量策略之投資成本與減量潛力，以便同時評估策略推動帶來之整體影響，即可推估出第二期階段管制目標下所帶來之總體經濟影響。 我國溫室氣體評估模型工具包含能源、環境、經濟三個面向，主要由能源工程模型(TIMES)、環境工程模型(LEAP)、以及可計算一般均衡的經濟模型(TAIGEM)所組成。分析我國未來能源供需結構與燃料燃燒二氧化碳排放趨勢，作為政府部門的統一資訊及會議討論基礎。臺灣TIMES模型是以能源技術為基礎的能源工程模型，具豐富能源技術資料，將複雜的能源系統以線性規劃模式(linear programming)展現。 模型的核心是以能源服務需求（外生變數）為驅動力，以最低成本規劃滿足該能源服務需求下之能源供需系統。為由下而上的能源工程模型，透過能源技術資料庫來描述能源系統，而整體資料庫是以製程、能源商品以及能源商品流三者之間的網絡關係來建構出能源系統的基本架構，才得以精確描述臺灣能源系統。 結合我國重要溫室氣體之經濟模型與能源工程模型對關鍵部門參數設定與減碳情境連結，並建立我國溫室氣體長期減碳路徑整合分析架構；然而，經濟及能源模型之整合因仍有待相關智庫及部會之協作與討論，須持續推動，將先行針對前端經濟模型所推估之經濟及產業發展路徑，配合各部門能源相關資訊，以數據分析方式，評估能源需求路徑。 另外，為協助我國推動訂定溫室氣體淨零排放路徑，本研究分析歐盟、英國、日本及南韓等國家推動淨零排放之實質進展。在淨零碳排目標確立下，資金需求亦將提升，為利後續規劃並啟動相關淨零排放相關工作，有必要檢視並投入重大公共建設計畫及科技計畫等相關資源，本研究協助環保署彙整各部會評估之資金需求，研提中長程個案計畫（草案）。此外，本研究協助環保署強化淨零排放路徑評估及初步藍圖規劃，包含：設計淨零情境之經濟工具配套機制、彙整「淨零排放路徑中長程個案計畫」，以及研析「淨零排放路徑中長程個案計畫」與我國「第二期階段管制目標」及「淨零路徑」等政策之關聯性。 | ||
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| 中文關鍵字 | 淨零排放、碳中和、公眾參與 | ||
基本資訊
| 專案計畫編號 | 經費年度 | 110 | 計畫經費 | 8649.25 千元 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 專案開始日期 | 2021/04/20 | 專案結束日期 | 2021/12/31 | 專案主持人 | 李俊杉 |
| 主辦單位 | 環管處 | 承辦人 | 張文菖 | 執行單位 | 財團法人台灣綜合研究院 |
成果下載
| 類型 | 檔名 | 檔案大小 | 說明 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 期末報告 | 我國環境、能源、經濟預測模型暨減碳多元情境先期規劃_成果報告(定稿本).pdf | 13MB |
Environmental, Energy and Economic Forecasting Models and Preliminary planning for Multi-Scenarios for Carbon Reduction
| 英文摘要 | The Paris Agreement passed at the United Nations Climate Summit in 2015 hopes to rely on the efforts of all countries to curb the runaway trend of global warming. The target global greenhouse gas emissions must reach net zero by 2050. Through the formulation of policies and laws, all countries will achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Discussing the goal of net zero carbon emissions and the transition path involves the country's long-term carbon reduction project. Policies include issues such as national energy ratio, industrial green transformation, future economic and social development vision, and the introduction of new technologies. It needs a series of research based on scientific foundation. In addition, dealing with the complexity of economic development and energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions, it’s necessary to rely on the integrated analysis of different models and the integrity assessment of future scenarios to provide policy support. Therefore, this research takes Taiwan‘s 2050 net zero emission target as the main topic, using the general equilibrium model and the corresponding database. Combined economic and trade development, and establishes general equilibrium model for Taiwan. In oreder to calculate the BAU(Business as Usual) scenario for 2050. Moreover, construct a diversified context for carbon reduction, and evaluate the corresponding economic impact and policy path. Due to greenhouse gas emission reduction involves other energy engineering models and economic development models, it’s necessary to integrate the different models, as well as the future development scenarios of Taiwan. Estimate the energy demand path of the whole and major sectors, and analysis with international long-term carbon reduction integration models. Combining the economic model and energy engineering model of my country’s important greenhouse gases to link key sector parameters and carbon reduction scenarios, and establish an integrated analysis framework for the long-term carbon reduction path of my country’s greenhouse gases; however, the integration of economic and energy models still needs relevant think tanks and The collaboration and discussion of the ministerial committees must be continuously promoted. The economic and industrial development path estimated by the front-end economic model will be first carried out, and the energy-related information of various departments will be used to evaluate the energy demand path through data analysis. The follow-up can assist the Environmental Protection Agency(EPA). To assist the government to set up Taiwan’s pathway toward Net-zero GHG emissions, this research comprehensively analyzes the actual progress of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea's net zero emissions and analyze the results. With the establishment of the net zero carbon emission target, the demand for funds will also increase. In order to facilitate subsequent planning and start related net zero emissions related work, it is necessary to review and invest in major public construction design. This research assists the PEA in organizing the future resource needs of relevant departments and develop the “Medium and Long-term Projects”. It also assists the EPA in strengthening the assessment of the net-zero emission path and preliminary blueprint planning, including: designing the economic tool supporting mechanism for the net-zero scenario, compiling the "net-zero emission path medium and long-range case plan", and researching and analyzing the "net-zero emission path" The relevance of the “Long-term Case Project” to my country’s policies such as the “Phase II Control Targets” and the “Net Zero Path”. | ||
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| 英文關鍵字 | Net Zero Emissions, Carbon Neutrality, Public Engagement | ||