| 英文摘要 |
EPA is in-charge of the prevention and response of toxic chemical disasters. In order to better understand the potential risk, it is required to develop methodologies for analyzing the risk potential to evaluate the possible location and risk associated with the use of toxic chemicals. The results can be used to minimize the possible consequence for toxic incidents.
This project focuses on the development of methodologies for analyzing the risk potentials of toxic chemicals. In this project, the following work items have been carried out and completed:
Complete the collection of background information for Tainan County and summarize in graph and table. The results will be used in risk potential analysis.
Evaluate the suitability for PHAST and ALOHA dispersion models. The ALOHA dispersion model is conservative in results, free to use, ease to operate, and is thus choose as the dispersion model to be used in this project.
Improve the methodologies for risk potential analysis. The existing method considers only the effects of toxic release. The effects of fire and explosion are added. It is found that adding the three effects are better in showing the risk potential than choosing the largest effects.
The risk is better defined as: “square of hazardous radius × population density × incident frequency” in showing the risk potential than defined as “hazardous radius × incident frequency”
Risk value after weighting of facility response capability showed that Science Park has a lower risk but the risk in traditional operating facilities remains the same. Thus, the final conclusions for defining the risk is: 1. Summing the risk from release, fire and explosion, 2. define risk value as “square of hazardous radius × population density × incident frequency”, 3. Weighting of facility response capability should be used.
Propose a selection criterion for choosing 110 operating facilities from a total of 500+ facilities. The resulting risk potential map is compared with the raw potential map and showed small discrepancy. The selection criterion will largely reduce the time required for preparing the risk potential map.
The results of risk potential is used to prepare a map for evacuation refugee. The map can be used in planning evacuation in case of a major disaster occurred.
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