| 英文摘要 |
A participant party under the UNFCCC should fulfill the obligation to submit national communication and greenhouse gas inventories, the very important documents describing the party’s contributions and responses to the climate change. All Annex 1 parties under UNFCCC have already submitted their fourth national communications. The COP requires that the fifth national communications be submitted by January 1st, 2010 and the non-Annex 1 parties hand in the second edition. On the aspect of national greenhouse gas inventories, Annex 1 parties should submit the inventories report to the UNFCCC secretariat every year. The UNFCCC has adopted the revised 1996 IPCC national greenhouse gas guidelines for more ten years. A new 2006 IPCC national greenhouse gas guidelines has been issued by IPCC in 2006.
Taiwan has long been taking enthusiastic response to address the UNFCCC for years. In 2002, Taiwan issued the first national communication accordingly, and updating the National greenhouse gas inventories yearly. Based on the UNFCCC guidelines of national communication, this project organized the working groups for the edition of Taiwan’s second national communication, inclusive of the working fields of national greenhouse gas inventories, policy and measure, and also scenario forecasting, benefits, impacts and adaptation, climate systematic observation, and technology needs and transfers. In meeting with the current international progress on the guidelines for national communication and inventories, this project improved and updated the greenhouse gas inventories database in accordance to both the revised 1996 and 2006 IPCC inventories guidelines, in reviewing the sectoral structures and emission allocations, forecasting the effect of policy and measure through simulation model by cooperation with international expert team in compiling the second national communication will chapter by chapter which will literarily exhibit the Taiwan’s endeavors to the address the climate change. Meanwhile, the education and promotion to the public on the national communication and inventories will be ongoing during the working period.
The objectives of this project include：1. Calculating the national greenhouse gas emissions and constructing the inventories, which also include the reviewing on the UNFCCC guidelines, constructing the implementing process for integration of the inventories and the formats, and the assessment of uncertainties. 2. Analyzing the emission trends and the causes through the inventories, and formulating reduction policy. 3. Assessing the effect and impacts of Taiwan’s sectoral reduction policy to environment, energy, and macro economic through the energy engineering model. 4. Establishing the management platform for integration of the national communication, analyzing the evolution among different editions of national communications of other parties to the edition of Taiwan’s second National Communication across ministries.
The main results of this project include：
1. Greenhouse Gases Inventory
Base on the emissions from fuels combustion calculated by Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs and those from other sectors by this project, the total GHG emissions （exclusive of CO2 removal） are 145.20 Mt CO2eq in 1990 and growing to 289.77 Mt CO2eq in 2008. The increasing rate of the total GHG emissions （exclusive of CO2 removal） is 99.57％ with annual average growth rate at 1.68％ during 1990 and 2008, while it decreases by 4.08% in the period of 2007 and 2008. During 1990 and 2008 period, the GHG emissions from the energy sector in Taiwan increase 34.98％ with annual average growth rate at 4.86％, 58.48％ from the industrial process sector with 2.59％ annual average growth rate, 19.89％ from the agriculture sector with -1.2％ annual average growth rate, -64.36％ from the waste sector with -5.57％ annual average growth rate, and 5.94％ from the LUCF sector with 0.32％ annual average growth rate. Analyzing the GHG inventory through adopting IPCC level and trend assessment, it shows the key source categories are 1A1.energy industry, 1A2.manufacturing industry and construction、1A3.transport and 2F.Consumption of HFCs, PFCs and SF6. All previous tree sources are from fuels combustion.
2. Assessing the effect and impacts of Taiwan’s sectoral reduction policies to environment, energy, and macro economic
This project adopts four set reduction scenarios including CO2 reduction rate at 20%, 30%, 40%, and 49% below the base scenario, on simulating the effect and impacts of Taiwan’s sectoral reduction policies to environment, energy, and macro economic. The marginal abatement cost (MAC) would depend on the high efficient technology available, together with the utilizing rate of low carbon energy, and carbon off-sets. Through the simulation, the scenario for CO2 reduction rate at 49% would be the highest cost US$155/t CO2, following by at 40% with cost US$139.90 /t CO2, at 30% with cost US$109 /t CO2, and at 20% with cost on US$73 /t CO2. Based on this, the GDP loss in 2025, with relative to the base scenario, are between 0.74% and 7.74%, the higher reduction the more GDP would loss. The pertain benefits from CO2 reduction for air pollutants abatement rate under the reduction scenario above comparing to the base scenario are -0.79% ~ -0.35% for NOx, -0.8% ~ -0.36% for SOx, -0.73% ~ -0.45% for TSP and -0.31%~-0.12% for VOC。
3. Compiling the draft of the second National Communication
Under the proceeding of discussion and consultations with the ministries and experts through more than 10 meetings, this project has compiled 5 revised drafts subsequently for the second National Communication in accordance to the comments from ministries and expert’s reviews. Furthermore, a network platform has been established in due course for all drafts of the second National Communication deposited on the platform for references for the ministries.
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