EPA-105-FA18-03-A178

105

9,400 千元

空氣品質管理

2016/05/06

2017/04/30

蔡志賢

空保處

柏雪翠

景丰科技股份有限公司

大氣空氣

排放清冊、檢核更新、不確定性及敏感度分析

Emissions Inventory, Check and Review, Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis

陳勳融

02-23778011#209

hjchen@simenvi.com.tw

為掌握全國排放量趨勢作為空氣污染管制之參考，國家空氣污染物排放清冊之更新制度為每三年進行一次基準年總檢討計算，並在歷年間做局部更新，歷年更新資料解析度可達縣市等級。 本年度計畫的工作執行重點以檢討更新102年為基準年之新版空氣污染物排放量(TEDS 9)為主軸，並且以相同基礎架構推估103年非基準年排放量，同時於本計畫執行期間，也為下一版本清冊（10版）之基準年，故延伸出各項先期準備調查工作項目，包括以衛星影像方式調查河川揚塵裸露地排放潛勢區域與露天農廢燃燒面積判釋，為國際上主流排放清冊調查類似污染源多數所採用之方法，另外針對餐飲業與農廢燃燒污染源，執行現場或燃燒爐實驗檢測以檢討目前清冊所使用之排放係數。本年度計畫工作成果摘要如下： （一）完成最新版102年基準年排放清冊（TEDS 9版）異常檢核更新工作，並於105年11月於網頁上公告，修正後全國排放量（不包括船舶離岸排放量）TSP、PM10、PM2.5、SOx、NOx、THC、NMHC、CO與Pb排放量分別為385,307公噸/年、166,967公噸/年、77,183公噸/年、116,943公噸/年、399,417公噸/年、540,987公噸/年、457,176公噸/年、568,305公噸/年與1,044公噸/年。 （二）點源資料庫中，各污染物排放量不確定性結果以NMHC為最高，多以排放係數方式推估，如空污費製程均化係數，占推估總量比例約為87 %；線源部份在最新9版清冊引用更高解析的資料，如各縣市解析1~25年車齡分布，使排放量不確定性略減；面源全國排放量資料不確定性，目前品質現況大部分落在B~C等級之間，且其中又以C等級分佈比例占最大。 （三）排放量推估參數敏感度，以蒙地卡羅法評估，線源各別物種主要敏感度來源分析結果，粒狀物以油耗值（59 %）、SOx為用油量（99 %）、NOx為零里程排放與劣化率（38 %）、THC、NMHC、CO為平均車行里程（81 %）；面源敏感度差異來源主要以活動強度影響較為明顯。 （四）105年豐水期及枯水期河川揚塵裸露地調查結果，包含15條主要河川，全台豐水期總調查面積26,869公頃，枯水期則為36,105公頃，較102年調查裸露地成果相比，豐水期裸露面積減少8 %，枯水期則增加24 %。依全臺各區域揚塵事件日統計資料以及各月份河川裸露地面積，推算105年河川裸露地揚塵排放量，TSP排放量70,907公噸，PM10排放量35,453公噸，PM2.5排放量14,221公噸。 （五）105年一期及二期稻作各縣市衛星判釋農廢露天燃燒面積分別為0.8~5.4 %與0.5~2.1 %。排放係數方面以嘉義縣大林、雲林崙背及彰化竹塘地區所蒐集之稻梗共計8點次燃燒爐體排放係數檢測，TPM排放係數為18.432±1.339 g/Kg-RS，PM2.5為18.229±1.211 g/Kg-RS，THC為0.138±0.022 g/Kg-RS，SOx為13.36±1.37 g/Kg-RS，NOx為13.57±2.82 g/Kg-RS。相對於TEDS 9.0版農廢燃燒排放係數，粒狀物約高2倍，SOx、NOx與CO部份也高2~8倍左右，THC與NMHC低約40倍左右。綜合上述成果推估105年一、二期稻作排放量合計TSP為1,002.5公噸、PM10為1,002.5公噸、PM2.5為971.2公噸、SOx為657.1公噸、NOx為932.0公噸、NMHC為5.6公噸與CO為9,435.7公噸。 （六）本年度實地進行十二點次餐飲業檢測作業，檢討目前清冊排放係數由早期餐飲業油煙排放與目前現況之情境差異，檢測餐飲類別包括中式、日式、速食、複合式及燒烤，依照不同餐飲類型排放細懸浮微粒（PM2.5）濃度結果顯示，燒烤餐飲排放濃度較高（0.948 mg/m3），速食餐飲排放較低（0.046 mg/m3），由此燒烤餐廳排放油煙對於空氣污染產生較大的影響。 （七）完成縣市排放量提報制度推動及網路系統提報功能更新應用：1、技術協助縣市執行105年排放量管理計畫工作；2、審查縣市105年排放量管理計畫執行工作成果，評定相關分數並給予建議；3、研擬106年排放量管理計畫工作項目、作業方法及評分標準，並藉由召開106年排放量管理計畫向縣市環保局說明。 （八）配合主計處綠色國民所得帳編製需求，彙整估算資料的年份為90年至104年進行更新，推估所需參數資料尚包括逐年空氣品質濃度及單位污染減量成本，並依主計處之需求，在本年度綠色國民所得帳新增PM2.5排放量帳資料。 （九）於105年11月1日公告上架新版「空氣污染排放量查詢系統」網頁，並符合無障礙網頁規定，內容包括新增排放量推估方法、空間分配指標與時間建議權重等說明頁面，並持續修正資料文件異常情況，同時製作勘誤列表說明更新歷程；另外也完成「空氣污染排放資料上傳系統」網站，移至環保署機房內設置作業，包括機房新主機需求申請、資安檢查表、原始碼掃描作業與申請DNS與防火牆開通程序。也持續性蒐集相關國外排放量建置消息、推估工具並檢討資料缺失差異。

排放清冊、檢核更新、不確定性及敏感度分析

EPA-105-FA18-03-A178.pdf

31MB

2017/9/1 上午 12:00:00

Taiwan Emission Data System (TEDS), as national emission inventory for air pollution control, is reviewed and updated every three years. The purposes of project in 2017 includes (1) reviewing emission inventory of TEDS 9.0 version (based on 2013), (2) estimating emission inventory of 2014 based on methods of TEDS 9.0, (3) Using satellite monitoring data to collect information of bared river land and agricultural burning and (4) reviewing emission factor of agricultural burning and restaurant cooking emission by experiment. The main achievement of this year also includes: 1. Correcting error estimates of TEDS9.0 and completing promulgation of TEDS9.0. The revised national inventories (excluding offshore emission from ships) of TSP, PM10, PM2.5, SOx, NOx, THC, NMHC, CO are 385,307 tons/year, 166,967 tons/year,77,183 tons/year, 116,943 tons/year, 399,417 tons/year, 540,987 tons/year, 457,176 tons/year, 568,305 tons/year and 1,044 tons/year. 2. In stationary emission database, the emission of NMHC with highest uncertainty among all pollutants is mostly estimated by using averaged emission factors, and the portion to total emission is 87%. In mobile sources emission database, TEDS9.0 uses higher resolution data such as vehicle-age (1-25 years) distribution for reducing uncertainties of mobile sources emission. In fugitive sources emission database, most sources possess B-level and C-level data quality, and most are C-level. 3. The sensitivity of emission inventory is evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulation. For mobile sources emission, the emission of particle (TSP, PM10, PM2.5), SOx and NOx is mostly influenced by bias of fuel-consumption factor (59%), fuel-consumption quantities (99%) and zero-mileage emissions and vehicle deteriorating rate (38%). the emission of THC, NMHC and CO is manly influenced by bias of averaged VKT. The major source of fugitive sources is activity intensity. 4. The bared area of 15 major rivers in flood and non-flood season in 2016 is 26,869 and 36,105 hectares respectively. Compared with 2013, the area in flood season decreased 8%, while the area in non-flood season increased 24%. Based on AQMS data and river bared land data, the TSP, PM10, PM2.5 emission in 2016 from river is 70,907 tons/year, 35,453 tons/year and 14,221 tons/year. 5. The agricultural burning ratio, investigated by satellite, of 1st and 2nd harvest period in 2016 is 0.8%-5.4% and 0.5%-2.1%. Concerned with emission factor, 8 samples collected from Central Taiwan is tested, and the emission factors of TPM, PM2.5, THC, SOx and NOx are 18.432±1.339 g/Kg-RS, 18.229±1.211 g/Kg-RS, 0.138±0.022 g/Kg-RS, 13.36±1.37 g/Kg-RS and g/Kg-RS. Compared with emission factors of TEDS9.0, the experimental emission factors of particle is 2-times higher than TEDS9.0. For SOx , NOx and CO, the experimental factors are 2-8 times lower than TEDS9.0. And for THC and NMHC, the experimental factor IS 40-times lower than TEDS9.0. Based on above outcomes, the TSP, PM10, PM2.5, SOx, NOx, NMHC and CO emission in 2016 from river is 1,002.5 tons/year, 1,002.5 tons/year, 971.2 tons/year, 657.1 tons/year, 932.0 tons/year, 5.6 tons/year and 9,435.7 tons/year. 6. Executing restaurant cooking sampling project with 12 samples and comparing TEDS9.0 emission factors with experimental outcomes. The restaurant types includes Chinese, Japanese, combined and BBQ, and according to experimental outcomes, the emission factors of BBQ restaurants is the highest among all restaurant types. 7. Updating the county/city emission reporting system: including a) technical support of 2016 county/city emission control projects; b) review, evaluation, and advises to 2016 emission control projects; c) elaboration of evaluation standards for 2017 emission projects. 8. 2015 green national product (GNP), including newly added product from PM2.5 emission, is prepared, and provided to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics. 9. The web site of “Air Pollution Inventory Query System” is promulgated in 2016.11.1, and the contents include estimation methods, spatial and temporal weighing factors etc. Meanwhile, the structure of emission inventory web site is elaborated. Also, the web-site contents of estimation teaching of new emission sources, activity of emission and space allocation index is accomplished. And, related information of emission web sites overseas is continuously collected.

Emissions Inventory, Check and Review, Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis